储能超预期、风电招标向好、光伏反内卷持续推进 - 新能源9-10月报

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the new energy sector, specifically energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaics (solar energy) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][9][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27]. Energy Storage - The global energy storage market is expected to grow by approximately 70% in 2025 and 40% in 2026, maintaining a growth rate of 20%-30% in the following years [1][3][19]. - The U.S. market is performing better than expected due to the Inflation Reduction Act, with projections of over 50 GWh in 2025 [3][19]. - Current supply of energy storage cells is insufficient, with shortages expected to last until at least mid-2026 [4][19]. - The bidding prices for energy storage systems have seen a rebound due to tight supply and improved profitability in large cell integration [2][5][22]. Wind Power - Domestic wind power bidding has shown single-digit growth in both onshore and offshore sectors from January to September 2025, with onshore wind slightly exceeding expectations [6][25]. - The deep-sea planning may increase the long-term capacity for offshore wind, and there is a clear demand for floating offshore wind in Europe [6][25]. - The overall outlook for wind power remains positive, with expectations of growth in both volume and profitability [6][25][26]. Photovoltaics - The demand for photovoltaics is currently weak, with a 50% year-on-year decline in installations from July to September 2025 [1][7][8][17]. - Cumulative installations for the year are projected at 230 GW, a 65% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by early-year installations [7][8]. - The supply side is experiencing significant oversupply, necessitating reforms to curb excessive competition within the industry [1][7][9]. - New energy pricing mechanisms are being implemented, with price ranges around 0.2-0.3 CNY/kWh [8][9][10]. - The revised energy consumption standards for polysilicon are expected to phase out 30% of the least efficient production capacity, enhancing overall industry efficiency [11]. Policy and Market Dynamics - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aim to eliminate cutthroat competition in the photovoltaic sector and promote orderly capacity expansion in lithium battery production [9][11]. - Capacity price compensation policies are being rolled out across various provinces, significantly impacting the development of independent energy storage projects [20][21]. - The domestic energy storage system prices have shown a downward trend but are expected to rebound due to supply constraints and improved bidding outcomes [22]. International Market Trends - The overseas energy storage market is recovering, with significant growth in component exports, particularly in battery form due to trade restrictions [12][13][19]. - In Europe, large-scale energy storage installations are projected to increase from 8 GWh last year to 18 GWh this year, with Chinese companies actively participating [23]. - The Australian residential energy storage market has seen a boost from new subsidy policies, leading to a rapid increase in installations [24]. Conclusion - The new energy sector, particularly energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaics, is undergoing significant changes driven by policy reforms, market dynamics, and technological advancements. Continuous monitoring of these developments is essential for identifying investment opportunities and risks [27].