2025-10-15 14:57Summary of the Conference Call for Sai Electric Company Overview - Sai Electric's main business includes three segments: high-speed trains, locomotives, and urban rail, with each segment contributing 30%, 30%, and 40% to the revenue respectively [2][4][5] - The company expects to achieve a profit of approximately 2.5 billion RMB from its main business, with steady growth anticipated [2][5] Key Business Insights - Locomotive Replacement Demand: The plan to phase out old diesel locomotives is expected to be completed by 2027, creating significant demand for replacements. Currently, there are about 3,000-4,000 old locomotives that need updating, with historical annual delivery around 800 units [2][5] - Emerging Business Segments: Emerging businesses include power semiconductors, photovoltaic inverters, and deep-sea robots. Although these segments currently contribute less to profits, they have substantial revenue potential and profit elasticity [2][6] Financial Performance and Projections - Power Semiconductor Business: Expected revenue of 4.4 billion RMB in 2024 with a net profit of 1.2 billion RMB, yielding a net profit margin of 27%. The market share in high-voltage applications is 50%, and in low-voltage applications for passenger vehicles, it is nearly 15% [2][6][8] - Future Growth: By 2027, the total output value of the power semiconductor segment is projected to triple, reaching approximately 13-14 billion RMB, with revenues expected to exceed 10 billion RMB and net profits surpassing 2 billion RMB [2][8] - Overall Profit Expectations: The company anticipates an overall profit of 3.7 billion RMB in 2024, with expectations to reach 4.1-4.2 billion RMB this year, indicating double-digit growth [2][12] Market Position and Competitive Advantages - Photovoltaic Inverter Market: Sai Electric ranks among the top three in the photovoltaic inverter market, with expected revenue of 2 billion RMB in 2024. The company is poised to expand its market share rapidly due to the booming energy storage market [2][9] - Deep-Sea Robot Market: The company holds the largest global market share in deep-sea robots, generating approximately 1 billion RMB annually. Although current profitability is low, upcoming policies are expected to drive significant market growth [2][10] Shareholder Returns and Valuation - The current H-share price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 10 times, indicating a potentially undervalued status. The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 38% in 2024 to 50% [2][12] - The company has initiated share buybacks and plans to continue enhancing shareholder returns, supported by decreasing capital expenditures and increasing free cash flow [2][12] Conclusion - Sai Electric is positioned for growth in both its core and emerging business segments, with strong demand drivers in the locomotive replacement market and significant potential in power semiconductors and renewable energy sectors. The company’s financial health and shareholder return strategies suggest a positive outlook for future performance [2][3][12]