四中全会前，消费买什么？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the consumer sector in China, particularly focusing on the implications of macroeconomic factors such as the narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential and the strengthening of the RMB, which provide a favorable environment for consumer policies and investments in the upcoming quarters [1][4][3]. Key Investment Opportunities - Consumer Sector: The fourth quarter is highlighted as a critical time for investing in the consumer sector, driven by events like the Fourth Plenary Session and the Lunar New Year consumption peak [1][4]. - Specific Sectors: - New Consumption, Beauty Care, and Pet Food are identified as promising investment areas, particularly during the Double Eleven shopping festival [1][5]. - Cosmetics: Brands like Han Shu (by Shangmei Group) and Feicui (by Ruoyu Chen) are expected to see rapid growth, while Mao Geping is noted for its long-term growth potential [1][7]. - Pet Sector: Leading companies such as Zhongchong Co. and Guai Bao Co. are highlighted, with significant revenue growth and expansion plans [12][13]. - Sports Sector: Lisheng Sports is projected to have significant growth potential, benefiting from policy support for domestic demand and sports-related consumption [14][19]. Company Performance Insights - Shanghai Jahwa and Shuiyang: These companies are noted for their turnaround success, with Shanghai Jahwa seeing significant growth in brand engagement and sales post-management changes [8][9]. - Lepu Medical: The company is experiencing strong demand for its cosmetic products, with projected sales exceeding 200,000 units for its popular product [11]. - Lisheng Company: Expected to achieve a profit of approximately 40 million yuan in 2025, with potential for doubling profits in 2026 [19]. Market Dynamics - Gold and Jewelry Sector: The industry is experiencing a divergence between average prices and stock prices, with high-margin products and effective expansion strategies being key drivers [20][21]. Brands like Laopai are performing well, but face risks of slowing sales due to rising prices [22][23]. - Home Appliances: Midea is highlighted as a defensive investment with a projected compound annual growth rate of 15% for its B2B business [32][33]. The company is also benefiting from overseas market growth, particularly in emerging regions [34]. Future Trends and Expectations - Consumer Market Trends: The consumer market is expected to oscillate between strong expectations and weak realities, influenced by policy changes and economic fundamentals [3][4]. - Investment Strategy: A rotation strategy is recommended, focusing on different sectors as they peak, with an emphasis on companies with strong data and event-driven catalysts [6]. - Long-term Outlook: The upcoming release of the 15th Five-Year Plan details is anticipated to further support the growth of the consumer sector [6]. Conclusion - The conference call emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in the consumer sector, particularly in beauty, pet care, and sports, while also highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the gold and jewelry market. Companies demonstrating strong fundamentals and growth potential are positioned favorably for future investment.