Deye(SH:605117)2025-10-15 14:57Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The global residential energy storage market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%-30% over the next 3-5 years, with significant growth potential in the commercial energy storage sector due to a low base in overseas markets [1][2] - In 2024, the domestic commercial energy storage installation reached 8 GWh, with expectations for substantial growth in 2025 [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Technological Trends: Commercial energy storage is moving towards multi-port adaptability and increased single-unit power (400-500 kW), requiring high battery life and favoring brands like CATL and EVE Energy [1][3][4] - Market Dynamics: The boundary between residential energy storage and balcony photovoltaic systems is blurring, leading to increased competition focused on channel control and brand building [1][5] - Regional Demand Drivers: - European residential energy storage demand is primarily driven by economic factors, contrasting with emerging markets like South Africa, Pakistan, and Ukraine, where demand is driven by power outages [1][7] - The 2022 surge in the European market was fueled by rising natural gas prices and supportive policies, with returns exceeding 20% due to subsidies [1][8] - Current conditions in Europe show a return to normal electricity prices and subsidies, with a projected growth rate of about 10% in 2026 [1][9] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets, particularly Pakistan and Ukraine, showed strong demand in 2024, driven by electricity shortages, although demand in Pakistan weakened in the latter half of the year [1][10] - Australia implemented residential energy storage subsidies in 2025, leading to a significant increase in installations, with a projected growth rate of around 40% [1][11] - Potential growth areas for emerging markets in 2026 include the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia, with Indonesia expected to see explosive growth [1][12] Investment Opportunities - The commercial energy storage sector is in a rapid development phase domestically and just beginning overseas, presenting higher valuation potential for investors [2][17] - Companies like Airo, Deye, and Goodwe are expected to show significant growth in the commercial energy storage sector, with a projected addition of approximately 3.6 GWh in Europe in 2025 [1][17][19] - The global commercial photovoltaic market is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 25% from 2026 to 2030, indicating higher explosive potential compared to residential energy storage [1][18] Additional Important Insights - The overseas residential energy storage market maintains high profitability due to pulse demand, brand emphasis, and product iteration, with established companies benefiting from first-mover advantages [1][13] - Emerging markets focus on high-cost performance low-voltage products, while European markets prioritize brand and quality, leading to different competitive dynamics [1][14] - The visibility of demand in the residential storage sector is relatively low, relying on monthly production and shipment data, which reflects underlying order visibility issues [1][15][16]