如何解读9月生猪产能数据

Summary of the Conference Call on September Pig Production Data Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming industry, specifically the production and market dynamics of breeding pigs and piglets in China. Key Points and Arguments 1. Breeding Pig Expansion Trends The trend of breeding pig expansion is significant, reaching the highest level since 2022, with a 14% increase compared to January 2014 and an 8% increase compared to January 2023, although it is down 6.6% from the peak in January 2021 [1][2] 2. Sales and Elimination of Breeding Pigs In the last three months, external sales of breeding pigs have remained stable, with a year-on-year decline of 20% and a cumulative decline of 9%. The elimination rate increased by 5% month-on-month and approximately 40% year-on-year in September [3][4] 3. Mother Pig Inventory Changes by Scale In September, the inventory of mother pigs varied by scale: farms with fewer than 5,000 pigs remained stable with a 0.4% increase; farms with 5,000 to 20,000 pigs saw a 0.9% decrease; and large enterprises with over 20,000 pigs experienced a slight decrease of 0.4% [5] 4. Piglet Inventory Stability The inventory of piglets has stabilized in the last two months, with only a slight decrease, potentially linked to high mortality rates in July and August [6] 5. Impact of National Production Control Policies National policies aimed at controlling production have led to a slight decrease in the number of mother pigs. Despite a target to reduce 1 million mother pigs, the slow market demand has hindered the pace of reduction [7][9] 6. Current Market Conditions The market is experiencing an increase in the elimination of mother pigs, with large pig prices losing their advantage, sometimes falling below standard pig prices. This indicates a weak market demand [8] 7. Future Production Reduction Goals There is a target to reduce the output of pigs by approximately 5% in 2026 to address supply-demand imbalances, with a focus on reducing the number of mother pigs to control overall output [9][11] 8. Current Capacity Decrease Trends The current capacity reduction is just beginning, expected to continue until January, with a potential acceleration if demand improves [12] 9. Weather Impact on Disease and Production Recent cooling has led to some minor disease issues, but no severe outbreaks have been reported. However, weather changes pose potential risks to production [13] 10. Price Trends and Future Expectations Prices have seen a significant drop due to increased supply and decreased demand, with expectations of a weak rebound if weather conditions improve and demand rises [14][16] 11. Regional Price Disparities There have been notable fluctuations in regional price differences, influenced by disease outbreaks and supply-demand relationships, with southern regions experiencing overcapacity [20][21] 12. Future Capacity Expansion in Southern Regions There is no specific data on capacity expansion in southern regions, but many enterprises are shifting focus from northern to southern regions for new investments [22] Other Important Insights - The industry is currently facing significant losses, with losses exceeding 100 yuan per head for both fat and piglets, which could lead to a reduction in overall production capacity if sustained [18][19]