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双十一展望及新消费投资策略
2025-10-15 14:57

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the beauty and e-commerce sectors in China, particularly focusing on the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival in 2025. The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of accelerated growth across various platforms, especially Taobao and Tmall, which are projected to achieve a growth rate of around 20% during the event [1][3]. Key Companies and Their Performance 1. Taobao and Tmall - Taobao and Tmall are expected to see marginal acceleration in growth, benefiting from personnel adjustments, local life integration, instant retail, and the influence of the 88 VIP membership program [1][3]. 2. Douyin - Douyin is anticipated to achieve approximately 40% growth, with other platforms also expected to maintain double-digit growth rates [1][3]. 3. Proya (珀莱雅) - Proya is currently in a personnel adjustment phase, with GMV growth expectations for Double Eleven projected to be in the single to low double digits. The company plans to launch more new products in 2026 and aims for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][9]. 4. Mao Geping (毛戈平) - Mao Geping is expected to maintain a strong sales performance, with online sales growth projected between 40% to 50% during Double Eleven. The brand has seen significant collaboration with Li Jiaqi, particularly on key products [1][7][8]. 5. Perfect Diary (完美股份) - Perfect Diary had a strong online performance in the first half of the year but experienced a slight slowdown in Q3. The brand is expected to achieve over 30% growth during Double Eleven [1][11]. 6. Shanghai Jahwa (上海家化) - Shanghai Jahwa has shown accelerated online sales in Q3, with expectations for significant growth during Double Eleven, driven by brands like Bai Cao Ji and Yu Ze [1][10]. 7. Yixian E-commerce (易鲜电商) - Yixian's high-end brands, such as Kalanli and Darfu, have seen GMV double in Q2, indicating a strong recovery and potential for further growth [1][12]. 8. Luyuchen (陆雨辰) - Luyuchen is expected to see a significant increase in revenue, estimated to double in Q3, benefiting from rapid growth in its Jade Station home and optimized operations on Douyin [1][13]. 9. Iffidan (伊菲丹) - Iffidan is focusing on multi-channel operations and product launches, with plans to open 50 offline stores in China over three years [2][16][17]. 10. Jinbo Biotech (锦波生物) - Jinbo is strengthening its position in the medical beauty sector with new product approvals and collaborations, aiming for significant market penetration [1][19]. 11. Meili Tianyuan Group (美丽田园集团) - The group has made a strategic acquisition of Siyuanli, enhancing its market share and member base significantly [1][21]. 12. Shangmei Group (上美股份) - Shangmei is expanding its product range and has achieved significant growth through innovative marketing strategies on Douyin [1][22]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Domestic beauty brands are gaining market share due to better consumer insights and faster product iterations compared to foreign luxury brands, which are struggling with slower product development [2][15]. - The price stability of foreign brands contrasts with the aggressive pricing strategies of domestic brands, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][4]. Investment Strategies - The new consumption sector is highlighted as a key investment area, with traditional growth stocks also being considered due to their strong fundamentals and lower valuations expected in 2026 [1][6]. Conclusion - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to be a significant growth driver for the beauty and e-commerce sectors, with various companies poised to capitalize on the trends and consumer behavior shifts observed in the market. The overall sentiment is positive, with a focus on innovation, collaboration, and strategic positioning to enhance market share and profitability.