“十五五”规划前瞻：总量篇+产业篇

Summary of the Conference Call on the 15th Five-Year Plan Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) in the context of China's economic and policy landscape. Core Points and Arguments 1. Importance of the 15th Five-Year Plan: The plan is a key document following the 20th National Congress and the third plenary session, focusing on detailed policy implementation without deviating from the overall trends established in previous documents [1][4] 2. Completion Rates of Previous Plans: The completion rates of five-year plans have shown a significant upward trend, with the 14th Five-Year Plan achieving over 90% completion, indicating increased emphasis on planning and execution [1][5] 3. Economic Growth Targets: The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to set annual growth targets between 4.6% and 4.8% to maintain social stability and high-quality development, marking a shift from qualitative to quantitative goal-setting [1][11] 4. Expansion of Domestic Demand: Expanding domestic consumption is highlighted as a long-term strategy, with plans to include consumption's contribution to economic growth as a quantitative indicator in the 15th Plan [1][12] 5. Investment Expectations: The plan anticipates the release of 80 to 100 major projects, focusing on infrastructure and cyclical projects, with an emphasis on improving social welfare through targeted investments [1][13] 6. New Quality Productivity: The development of new quality productivity, particularly through enhancing total factor productivity (TFP), is a central theme, with expectations that the value added by strategic emerging industries will account for at least 20% of GDP by 2030 [1][14] 7. High-Level Security: The plan emphasizes high-level security across various domains, including financial, supply chain, and energy security, reflecting a historical peak in focus on national security [1][15][16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Economic Outlook: The current economic situation is viewed positively by mainstream opinions, but there are also pessimistic voices. The need for a comprehensive evaluation of the economic landscape is emphasized [1][6] 2. Systemic Uncertainties: The next few years may face uncertainties due to potential systemic restructuring in trade, finance, and technology, influenced by factors like de-globalization and geopolitical tensions [1][9] 3. Legislative Framework: The introduction of the National Development Planning Law aims to enhance the institutional framework for planning, ensuring that development goals are legally mandated [1][5] 4. Key Legislative Dates: Important dates for the 15th Five-Year Plan include the fourth plenary session in October 2025 and the National People's Congress in 2026, which will discuss and approve the plan [1][2]