钢铁行业 - 一线观察第 26 期：需求疲软，但价格下行空间有限-Steel-Views From the Trenches #26 Soft Demand Yet Little Downside to Prices

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Steel - Region: North America - Current Market View: Prices are expected to remain relatively muted over the next six months due to soft demand, despite an anticipated fall in imports [1][2] Key Points Demand Dynamics - Soft Demand: Steel demand has been subdued since April 2024, with expectations of a muted six months before any significant improvement [3][4] - Bifurcated Market: Industrial sectors like heavy equipment, energy, and infrastructure are performing relatively well, while consumer-oriented segments are sluggish [3][4] - Strong Segments: Oilfield and OCTG steel volumes are strong, and solar and wind markets are benefiting from residual IRA-driven spending, although long-term visibility is limited [3][4] - Weak Segments: Truck and trailer demand has collapsed post-COVID, with recovery not expected until 2029. Consumer goods like garden equipment remain pressured by high interest rates and reduced discretionary spending [3][4] Import and Tariff Impact - Declining Imports: Import flows are expected to decline sharply due to a 50% tariff, which eliminates nearly all profit margins for foreign suppliers [4][7] - Economic Incentive: An Asian producer selling at $500/t would incur $250/t in duties and $35/t in freight, leading to a landed cost of approximately $785/t, making domestic prices more attractive [4][7] - Potential "Steel Island": A self-contained steel market could emerge if Mexico and Canada adopt similar tariffs without exceptions [4][7] Price Stability - Current Price Levels: Steel prices are expected to remain stable around $800/t, with transaction levels around $750/t [7][8] - Limited Catalysts: There are limited near-term catalysts to break current price levels, with healthy inventory levels and excess capacity limiting upside [7][8] - Potential Upside: Accelerated interest rate cuts or reduced trade escalation rhetoric with China could provide a bullish case [7][8] - Downside Risks: An unexpected relaxing of tariffs on Mexico and Canada could trigger downside risks, with base prices potentially around $600/t without the current tariffs [7][8] Company Insights - Nucor: Continues to hold its weekly listed HRC price stable at $875/t for eight consecutive weeks, focusing on vertical integration [8] - Nippon's Strategy: Ownership of U.S. Steel has led to a strategic shift towards integrated customer solutions rather than individual product sales [8] - Cleveland-Cliffs: Has been quicker to offer discounts to secure sales volumes and benefit from fixed-cost dilution [8] Additional Considerations - Cautious Outlook: The overall tone remains cautious with near-term stagnation expected until mid-2Q26 when inventories normalize and policy clarity improves [3][4] - Bipartisan Support for Tariffs: U.S. tariff policy on steel continues to receive bipartisan support, which is crucial for the industry's stability in the current demand environment [4][7]