中国经济 - 9 月通胀同比稳健，环比下滑-China Economics-Sep Inflation Solid YoY, Slipping MoM

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Economics sector, specifically analyzing inflation trends in September 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. CPI Trends: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed continued weakness in food prices, stabilizing at 0.7% MoM SAAR after a sharp decline in July and August. A rebound in vegetable and fruit prices offset weaker pork prices due to slower supply adjustments meeting soft demand [2][3] 2. Core CPI Performance: Core CPI was supported by a base effect and gold prices, but month-over-month (MoM) figures softened notably. Home appliance prices decreased to 4.4% MoM SAAR from a year-to-date strength of 9%, while auto prices declined by 3% MoM SAAR [3][11] 3. PPI Analysis: The Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM turned slightly negative, averaging 0% for midstream PPI. Stronger non-ferrous metals prices offset weaker steel products, while downstream PPI softened to -0.2% MoM led by food and durables [4][11] 4. Outlook for Core CPI and PPI: Core CPI is expected to improve slightly in October due to holiday impacts and gold prices, but a higher comparison base will constrain further upside in year-over-year (YoY) figures starting in November. PPI MoM averaged 0% in 4Q24, indicating steady yet soft demand [5][11] Additional Important Insights 1. Gold's Contribution: Gold consumption accounts for 0.8% of the core CPI basket, contributing approximately 0.3pp to the 1.0% YoY core CPI recorded in September [11] 2. Comparison Base Shift: The comparison base for core CPI and PPI is expected to shift from a tailwind to a headwind in 4Q25, which may impact future inflation metrics [11] 3. Inflation Metrics Summary: The summary table indicates that the YoY CPI was -0.3% in September, with food prices showing a significant decline of -4.4% MoM. The PPI YoY was reported at -2.3%, reflecting broader economic trends [7][11] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of inflation in China and its implications for the economy.