中国 - 9 月经济活动数据、第三季度 GDP 及四中全会预览-China_ Preview of September activity data, Q3 GDP and the 4th Plenum

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically the upcoming release of September activity data, Q3 GDP, and the 4th Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee scheduled for October 20-23, 2023 [1][2][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Industrial Production (IP) Growth: - Expected to increase to 5.3% year-on-year (yoy) in September from 5.2% in August, driven by improvements in manufacturing PMIs, exports, and auto output [5][7]. - Auto output growth rose to 17.2% yoy in September from 13.5% in August, while steel production growth declined to +5.8% yoy from +11.5% [5][6]. 2. Retail Sales Growth: - Anticipated to moderate to 3.1% yoy in September from 3.4% in August, primarily due to a high base effect [9][7]. - Online sales of white goods remained stable at -7% yoy, while auto retail sales volume growth increased slightly to +6.3% yoy [9]. 3. Fixed Asset Investment (FAI): - Forecasted to remain sluggish at -4.6% yoy in September, an improvement from -6.8% in August, reflecting ongoing challenges in construction and property sectors [5][6]. - Year-to-date FAI growth is expected to be -0.2% yoy [6]. 4. GDP Growth Forecast: - Q3 real GDP growth is maintained at 4.8% yoy, a decline from 5.2% in Q2, with sequential growth moderating to 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) [9][10]. 5. 4th Plenary Session Expectations: - The session is expected to provide insights into the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for 2026-2030, with no specific numerical targets likely to be mentioned [8][10]. - Market reactions may vary based on the emphasis on consumption versus regulatory control [10]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the upcoming 4th Plenary Session may not significantly impact the market, but there are two-way risks depending on policy directions [10]. - There is a consensus that China needs to cultivate new growth engines and boost domestic consumption sustainably during the 15th FYP period [14]. - Analysts suggest a potential growth target range of 4-5% for the 15th FYP, with a focus on technology, security, and consumption [14]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and expectations for the Chinese economy.