JD Logistics (2618.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - JD Logistics (JDL) is China's largest provider of integrated supply-chain logistics services based on 2023 revenue, established in 2007 as the logistics department of JD.com [17][18]. Key Financial Insights - 3Q25 Expectations: JDL is expected to report revenues above consensus, driven by organic growth in 1P/3P ISC and contributions from 1P food delivery. However, earnings may drop year-over-year due to tough comparisons from 3Q24 [1][2]. - Revenue Projections: Total revenues are projected to grow 21% year-over-year to RMB 53.9 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of RMB 53.3 billion [2]. - Gross Margin: Gross profit margin is estimated to contract to 9.8% from 10.6% in 2Q25, with adjusted operating profit margin projected at 3.2% [2]. - Earnings Forecast: Adjusted earnings before minority interests are forecasted at RMB 1.98 billion, in line with consensus [2]. Segment Performance - 1P ISC: Organic momentum is expected to sustain into 3Q25 but may slow in 4Q25 due to tougher comparisons. The 1P food delivery business is anticipated to contribute fully in 3Q25 [3][4]. - 3P ISC: Growth is driven by improvements in customer numbers and average revenue per user (ARPU), particularly in key verticals like auto and apparel [3]. - Other Customers: The impact of declining average selling prices (ASP) is expected to diminish, with volume growth driven by premium express services [3]. Margin and Earnings Outlook - Earnings Drop: JDL may experience a year-over-year earnings drop in 3Q25 due to a higher base last year, but net profit margin is projected to expand in 4Q25 due to peak season effects [4]. - Consolidation Impact: The consolidation of Dada's on-demand delivery service is expected to contribute incrementally to earnings in 4Q25 [4]. Valuation and Investment Strategy - Target Price: The target price for JDL is set at HK$18, based on a 12x 2025E P/E ratio, aligning with the average of China logistics peers [19]. - Market Capitalization: As of October 13, 2025, JDL's market cap is HK$83.32 billion (approximately US$10.71 billion) [6]. Risks - Concentration Risk: Revenue exposure to JD Group and a few verticals poses a risk [20]. - Margin Pressure: Heavy investments may impact margins [20]. - Competition: Increased competition could be more intense than expected [20]. - Logistics Disruptions: Potential disruptions related to COVID-19 outbreaks remain a concern [20]. Summary of Financial Metrics - Net Profit: Projected to increase from RMB 2.76 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.26 billion by 2027 [5]. - Diluted EPS: Expected to grow from RMB 0.440 in 2023 to RMB 1.640 in 2027 [5]. - P/E Ratio: Expected to decrease from 26.1 in 2023 to 7.0 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [5]. Conclusion - JD Logistics is positioned for steady growth with a strong infrastructure and technology platform, despite facing potential risks from market concentration and competition. The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on its valuation and growth prospects [18].
京东物流_预计 2025 年第三季度大体符合预期；一体化供应链势头可能延续