台湾供应链有望迎来强劲的人工智能动能及 GB300 出货量增长-TW supply chain poised for strong AI momentum & rising GB300 shipments

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Technology - Asia Pacific, specifically focusing on the AI server supply chain in Taiwan - Key Observations: - Taiwanese AI ODMs' sales bottomed out in August 2025, with a subsequent ramp-up in GB200/GB300 server shipments starting in September 2025 [1] - Quanta and Wistron reported month-over-month sales growth of 20% and 18% respectively in September, following declines in July and August [1] - Hon Hai's sales increased by 14% quarter-over-quarter and 11% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with a notable 38% month-over-month increase in September [1] Sales Growth and Projections - Component Sales: - Strong monthly sales growth recorded in Q3 2025, driven by component restocking for GB200/GB300 AI server shipments [2] - Delta's Q3 2025 sales reached a record high, increasing by 21% quarter-over-quarter and 34% year-over-year, with September sales up 19% month-over-month [2] - AVC and Auras also reported significant sales growth of 32% and 12% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025 [2] Potential Slowdown in ASIC AI Server Shipments - Observations: - A potential slowdown in ASIC AI server shipments was noted in September, contrasting with the ramp-up of GB200/GB300 servers [3] - EMC's sales declined by 9% month-over-month in September after four months of growth, while Wiwynn and Accton experienced declines of 10% and 5% respectively [3] - Despite the month-over-month declines, year-over-year sales growth remained high, with expectations for a resumption of growth momentum into 2026 [3] Future Sales Expectations - Sales Projections: - Anticipated peak sales for Taiwanese AI supply chain in Q4 2025 due to increased demand from top US CSPs [4] - Continued growth momentum expected into 2026, supported by solid demand from CSPs, enterprises, and sovereigns [4] - Buy ratings maintained for leading AI server companies including Hon Hai, Quanta, Wistron, Delta, AVC, and King Slide [4] Company-Specific Insights - Delta: - Q3 2025 preliminary sales reached NT$150 billion, with a 21% quarter-over-quarter and 34% year-over-year increase [15] - EPS estimates for 2025-2027 adjusted upwards by 7-9%, with a price objective raised to NT$1,130 [15][16] - Expected to see continued robust sales momentum into 2026, with a projected sales and earnings CAGR of 22% and 30% respectively [19] - Quanta: - Reported Q3 2025 preliminary sales of NT$495 billion, reflecting a 2% quarter-over-quarter decline but a 17% year-over-year increase [20] - Sales growth of 20% month-over-month in September indicates a ramp-up in GB300 AI server shipments [20] - EPS estimates for 2025-2027 trimmed by 1-6%, but price objective maintained at NT$360, with a projected sales and earnings CAGR of 24% and 15% respectively [20] Key Takeaways - The Taiwanese AI server supply chain is experiencing a significant recovery with strong sales growth in Q3 2025, driven by increased demand for AI servers from major cloud service providers. - While there are signs of a slowdown in ASIC server shipments, the overall outlook for the AI server market remains positive, with expectations for continued growth into 2026. - Companies like Delta and Quanta are well-positioned to benefit from this growth, with revised earnings projections reflecting their strong sales performance and market demand.