JD Logistics, Inc. 3Q25 Preview Summary Company Overview - Company: JD Logistics, Inc. (2618.HK) - Industry: Transportation & Infrastructure - Market Cap: HK$83,181 million - Stock Rating: Equal-weight - Price Target: HK$13.00 - Current Price (as of Oct 13, 2025): HK$12.52 Key Takeaways Revenue Growth - Top-line growth is expected to accelerate to 21% YoY in 3Q25, primarily driven by the food-delivery business, contributing 8 percentage points to growth [2][8] - Excluding food delivery, revenue from JD Group is estimated to grow at approximately 20% YoY, consistent with 1H25 but softer compared to 2Q25 [2] - External ISC revenue growth remains robust, with double-digit growth in customer numbers and year-over-year improvement in Average Revenue Per Customer (ARPC) [2] Profitability Concerns - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to decline by 20% YoY in 3Q25, contrasting with a 5% growth in 2Q25 [3][8] - Net margin is expected to narrow to 3.8% in 3Q25, down from 5.0% in 2Q25 and 5.8% in 3Q24, primarily due to front-loaded investments in labor, vehicles, and outsourced resources, along with poor performance from Deppon [3][8] Subsidiary Performance - Deppon is anticipated to face revenue and profit pressures in 3Q25 due to low seasonality, competition, and adjustments in product mix [4] - Kuayue is expected to maintain relatively stable revenue and profit growth [4] Investment Outlook - Despite the anticipated profit decline, the company expects mid single-digit profit growth for the full year, attributed to improved efficiency during peak season [8] - There are currently no plans for financing or shareholder returns [8] Risks and Considerations - Upside Risks: Better-than-expected revenue growth from JD's optimization efforts, strong external demand, and improved cost controls [15] - Downside Risks: Slower revenue growth due to soft demand, limited synergies with Deppon or JD.com, and potential overruns in front-loaded investments [15] Financial Metrics (Estimates) - Revenue (Rmb million): - 2025e: 214,360 - 2026e: 237,402 - 2027e: 256,954 - Net Income (Rmb million): - 2025e: 7,881 - 2026e: 8,964 - 2027e: 9,740 - P/E Ratios: - 2025e: 9.7 - 2026e: 8.5 - 2027e: 7.8 - Free Cash Flow Yield Ratio (%): - 2025e: 18.7 - 2026e: 19.3 - 2027e: 20.8 [6][8] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the JD Logistics, Inc. 3Q25 preview, highlighting the company's revenue growth, profitability challenges, subsidiary performance, and investment outlook.
京东物流-2025 年第三季度预览_收入扩张；利润收缩