“十五五”规划前瞻：历史篇+内需篇

Summary of the Conference Call on the 15th Five-Year Plan Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) in China, focusing on strategic directions in technology innovation, domestic demand, and emerging industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. Continuation of Strategic Directions: The 15th Five-Year Plan will extend and deepen the strategic directions of the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in technology innovation and new productive forces, aiming for a target of at least 20% of GDP from strategic emerging industries [1][11]. 2. Focus on Domestic Demand: Policies will emphasize consumption upgrades and investment structure optimization, aiming to release consumption potential through improved supply quality and international standards [1][4]. 3. Support for Emerging Industries: The plan will promote cluster development in new-generation information technology, high-end equipment, and biotechnology, with special funding and financing channels to support specialized and innovative enterprises [1][12]. 4. Capacity Governance: The plan will address overcapacity issues in industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics by enforcing strict environmental and energy consumption standards [1][13]. 5. Public Service and Income Distribution Reform: The plan aims to equalize basic public services and reform income distribution to reduce preventive savings in education, healthcare, and elderly care, thereby releasing more consumption capacity [1][16]. 6. Investment Focus: Short-term policies may lead to sector rotation effects, with funds potentially shifting from infrastructure to tourism and hospitality sectors, while long-term investments will focus on digital economy, high-end manufacturing, new energy, and the silver economy [3][17]. 7. Challenges in Consumption: Despite significant progress in cultivating new consumption drivers, consumption contribution to economic growth has weakened, dropping from 80% to 52% by Q2 2025 [3][9]. 8. Investment Targets: Most investment indicators are on track, but some energy security and social welfare targets have not met expectations, such as the nuclear power generation capacity completion rate of 68.8% [3][10]. 9. Technological Innovation and R&D: The plan will increase the proportion of basic research in R&D funding and enhance support for national laboratories and high-level universities [1][11]. 10. Quality Supply and Consumption Upgrade: The plan aims to improve supply quality to meet consumption upgrade demands, establishing a quality grading certification system [1][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Historical Context of Five-Year Plans: The evolution of China's Five-Year Plans from 1953 to the present reflects a shift from rapid economic growth to a focus on quality and efficiency [5][6]. 2. Impact on Capital Markets: Historical data suggests that while immediate impacts on stock markets may be limited, long-term policy implementations can significantly drive market performance, particularly in technology sectors [8]. 3. Social Welfare Opportunities: There are notable opportunities in social welfare sectors, particularly in elderly care and health management, which may see increased investment and development [3][17].