可控核聚变专家会解读“2025年国际原子能机构（IAEA）聚变能大会

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Controlled Nuclear Fusion Industry Overview - The conference focused on the nuclear fusion industry, particularly highlighting China's advancements and strategic plans in this field [1][4][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. China's Strategic Timeline: China has set a clear timeline for nuclear fusion development, aiming for a burning plasma experiment by 2027, the first engineering test reactor by 2035, and the first commercial demonstration reactor by 2045, indicating strong commercialization intentions [1][4][3]. 2. Global Distribution of Fusion Devices: As of 2025, 59% of global fusion devices are operational or planned, with 10% under construction. The majority of funding (67%) comes from government sources, while 33% is from private capital [4][5]. 3. Shift in International Cooperation: The international collaboration model is evolving from project-driven initiatives like ITER to a more inclusive approach that emphasizes ecological co-construction and value sharing, encouraging diverse technological pathways [1][10]. 4. Commercialization Momentum: The nuclear fusion industry is transitioning from experimental setups to engineering applications, marking a significant milestone in commercialization, driven by policy, funding, and technological support [2][15]. 5. Private Sector Investment Growth: Private sector spending in nuclear fusion surged by 73% from $250 million in 2023 to $434 million in 2024, with expectations of continued growth of 20%-30% in 2025 [14]. Additional Important Insights 1. Establishment of Collaboration Centers: The establishment of the first global fusion research and training collaboration center in Sichuan by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) signifies China's proactive role in setting technical standards and promoting quality systems in the fusion industry [3][7]. 2. Regional Development Disparities: The U.S. is aggressively pursuing fusion technology, with several projects expected to achieve grid connection by 2030, while Europe and China have similar timelines for their respective projects [6][16]. 3. Challenges in Commercialization: Key challenges include the stability of high-temperature superconductors, waste management, radiation shielding, and ensuring competitive electricity generation costs. Full commercialization may take an additional 3 to 5 years or longer [21]. 4. Technological Innovations: Projects like MIT's Spark, which utilizes high-temperature superconductors, aim to achieve high magnetic field strengths and are positioned as compact tokamak devices, potentially leading the way in fusion technology [18][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and strategic directions in the nuclear fusion industry, particularly focusing on China's initiatives and the global landscape of fusion technology.