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Summary of the Conference Call on Aluminum Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The focus is on the aluminum sector, particularly electrolytic aluminum, with a positive outlook for 2025 and beyond, anticipating an economic bottom early in the year [1][3][12]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Market Positioning: The aluminum sector is currently undervalued relative to gold, with valuations below the 40th percentile over the past two years. Most mainstream companies in this sector have single-digit valuations, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. 2. Profitability and Demand: The profit margin for electrolytic aluminum is approximately 4,500 RMB per ton, indicating significant potential for profit improvement with price increases. The expected global demand growth for electrolytic aluminum is between 3% and 5% under normal economic conditions [1][6][10]. 3. Supply Dynamics: Global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 2% over the next three years, with cautious expansion from Chinese enterprises due to resource constraints [1][6][12]. 4. Inventory Levels: Current global electrolytic aluminum inventory is critically low, around 150,000 tons, equivalent to about one week of turnover. This low inventory level could lead to market squeezes and price spikes if shortages occur [1][8]. 5. Economic Recovery Impact: A potential economic recovery coupled with liquidity easing could trigger significant price increases and performance improvements in the electrolytic aluminum sector, making it a top investment choice [2][11][12]. Additional Important Points - Defensive Attributes: The aluminum sector exhibits strong dividend characteristics and stability in capital flows, making it a defensive investment during periods of risk aversion [6][9]. - Regional Supply Constraints: In the U.S. and Europe, high electricity prices and resource scarcity hinder the resumption of production in major aluminum companies, limiting overall supply growth [9]. - Domestic Demand Trends: In the domestic market, demand is expected to see slight declines in construction and photovoltaic sectors, while the automotive sector may experience modest growth due to increased aluminum usage in electric vehicles [10]. - Future Variables: The end of geopolitical conflicts could significantly boost demand for basic metals like copper and aluminum, further enhancing the market outlook [11]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the favorable conditions for the aluminum sector, particularly electrolytic aluminum, suggesting it as a strategic investment opportunity in the coming years.