美股观点：人工智能资本支出热潮将持续推动标准普尔 500 指数成分股公司 2026 年现金支出US Equity Views_ The AI capex boom will continue to drive S&P 500 cash spending in 2026

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the S&P 500 and the impact of AI-related capital expenditures (capex) on cash spending trends through 2026 [1][2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Projected Cash Spending Growth: - S&P 500 cash spending is forecasted to reach $4.4 trillion in 2026, representing an 11% increase from 2025 [1][6]. - Capex is expected to grow by 17% year-over-year, driven by AI hyperscalers and a rebound in cash M&A, which is projected to grow by 15% [1][2][6]. 2. AI Hyperscalers' Influence: - AI hyperscalers are anticipated to account for 30% of S&P 500 capex and R&D, with their capex growth expected to surprise on the upside, potentially exceeding the consensus estimate of 20% [2][4][38]. - These companies have been funding their capex primarily through cash flow generation rather than debt, with capex accounting for 60% of their cash flows from operations [4][24]. 3. Impact of Policy and Economic Conditions: - The decline in policy uncertainty and improvements in CEO confidence are expected to support strong cash spending growth in 2026 [2][6]. - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which allows full expensing of R&D and capex, is projected to boost cash flows by approximately 5% in 2026 [14]. 4. Buybacks and Dividends: - Buyback growth is forecasted to be 9% in 2026, down from previous estimates due to the shift in focus from buybacks to capex among AI-exposed stocks [47]. - Dividends are expected to grow by 6% in 2026, with Health Care, Utilities, and Industrials leading the growth [58][61]. 5. M&A Activity: - US M&A activity has increased significantly, with a 35% year-over-year rise in announced transactions, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026 [63][66]. - The cash component of completed M&A transactions is projected to increase by 15% year-over-year, although a higher proportion of share-based consideration is anticipated due to elevated valuations [70]. Additional Important Insights - The AI hyperscalers' commitment to capex has led to a reduction in buyback growth, which has remained flat year-over-year for the past four quarters [4][18]. - The largest technology stocks have contributed significantly to S&P 500 cash spending growth, particularly in R&D and capex, with these firms accounting for 36% and 27% of total spending, respectively [17][34]. - The financial health of AI hyperscalers remains strong, with most carrying no net leverage, indicating lower risk compared to the Dot-Com Bubble era [24][30]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the expected trends in cash spending, the influence of AI hyperscalers, and the broader economic context affecting these dynamics.