ASML-短期前景向好，强劲的人工智能机遇和不断增长的极紫外（EUV） momentum 为支撑

Summary of ASML Holding (ASML.AS) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: ASML Holding (ASML.AS) - Industry: European Semiconductors, Hardware and Gaming Tech Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - 3Q25 Revenue: Below Visible Alpha Consensus Data - EBIT: Approximately €2.5 billion, 2% ahead of consensus [1][3] - Bookings in 3Q: €5.4 billion, flat quarter-over-quarter from a strong 2Q25 order intake of €5.5 billion [1][3] - EUV Orders: €3.6 billion, significantly above consensus of €2.2 billion [1][3] Market Outlook - Visibility into 2026: Improving, supported by AI and EUV momentum [3][4] - China Normalization: Expected significant revenue drop in China, offset by stronger AI-led momentum in other regions [4][5] - Memory Scaling: Transition to 4F² expected to drive EUV intensity and support DUV demand [6][7] AI and Technology Trends - AI Applications: Justifying faster node migration, reinforcing long-term lithography intensity [6][7] - Customer Base Expansion: Increasing adoption of EUV layers across leading-edge Logic and DRAM [3][6] Revenue Estimates - FY25 Estimates: Broadly unchanged; FY26-29 revenue estimates raised by approximately 1% due to strong Logic/Memory demand associated with AI [5][7] - Gross Profit Estimates: Increased by approximately 1% for FY25-29 [5][7] - EBIT Estimates: Adjusted by +1% to +4% reflecting topline and operational expenditure changes [5][7] Valuation and Risks - Price Target: Raised to €1,050 from €935, reflecting a 20.3% upside potential [7][8] - Key Risks: Include EUV delays, capex cyclicality, and unfavorable market share shifts [7][8] Additional Insights - Long-term Demand: ASML is positioned to benefit from long-term demand for leading-edge nodes used in AI and high-performance computing [5][6] - Customer Engagement: Ongoing dialogue with key customers supports a constructive outlook [4][5] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the ASML Holding conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, market outlook, technological trends, revenue estimates, valuation, and associated risks.