Summary of J.P. Morgan's Cloud Capex Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Cloud and Datacenter Capital Expenditures (Capex) within the U.S. Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) industry, particularly the Top 4 U.S. CSPs which include Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [1][3][8]. Key Points Capex Growth Projections - 2025 Capex Growth: The growth expectation for datacenter capex in 2025 has been revised upwards to nearly +60% year-over-year (y/y), up from a previous forecast of +40%. This translates to an increase of over $100 billion in absolute dollar terms, marking the largest annual increase to date, surpassing the previous record set in 2024 [1][3][8][21]. - 2026 Capex Growth: For 2026, the growth rate is now anticipated to be +30% y/y, which represents an increase of more than $80 billion. This is also an upward revision from the earlier forecast of +20% [1][3][21]. Investment Drivers - The primary driver of this growth is the accelerated investment in AI and related infrastructure. All major U.S. hyperscalers are expected to show robust double-digit growth in their capex [1][3][8]. - Tier 2 CSPs and Neoclouds: Investments from Tier 2 CSPs and emerging neoclouds are projected to grow significantly, with an expected capex of nearly $60 billion in 2025, which is more than double the average spend from the Top 4 CSPs prior to 2023 [1][3][35]. Equipment Categories - Server Investments: High-cost servers with advanced processing units (XPUs) will continue to dominate the capex expansion in 2025 and 2026. However, there is a notable increase in spending on networking equipment, including datacenter switches and optical transceivers [1][17][31]. - Networking Investments: The report indicates a ramp-up in investments in networking categories, which are expected to see substantial growth alongside server investments [1][17][31]. Company Coverage - J.P. Morgan remains bullish on companies that support AI infrastructure demands, particularly in networking. Companies highlighted include: - Arista (ANET) - Celestica (CLS) - Ciena (CIEN) - Coherent (COHR) - Lumentum (LITE) - Fabrinet (FN) [1][39]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes that the datacenter capex figures exclude other equipment like HVAC and non-cloud business items, focusing solely on IT equipment [7]. - The anticipated growth rates for Tier 2 and neoclouds suggest a shift in the competitive landscape, indicating that these companies are becoming increasingly significant players in the datacenter investment space [35]. Conclusion - The outlook for cloud datacenter capex is exceptionally strong, driven by AI investments and a broader base of spending from both major and emerging players in the industry. The anticipated growth rates for 2025 and 2026 reflect a robust demand for cloud infrastructure, positioning the sector for continued expansion.
硬件与网络-云计算资本支出展望：2025 年增速上调至近 60%；2026 年增长预期目前追踪为 30%-Hardware & Networking-Cloud Capex Outlook Growth Raised to Almost +60% in ‘25; ‘26 Growth Expectations Now Tracking to +30%