2025-10-17 01:46Summary of BYD Company Limited Conference Call Company Overview - Company: BYD Company Limited - Industry: Automotive, specifically focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and new energy vehicles (NEVs) - Date of Call: October 16, 2025 Key Points Market Performance and Sales Projections - BYD sold approximately 700,000 units overseas in the first nine months of 2025, aiming for a full-year target of 900,000 to 1 million units [2] - For 2026, BYD is projected to sell 1.6 to 1.8 million cars overseas, representing a 68-89% year-over-year increase [2] - The forecast includes a 1.2 percentage point year-over-year market share gain to 3.3% in markets outside China and the US [2] Regional Market Insights - BYD's market share in Brazil, Thailand, and Australia exceeds 5%, with over 20% volume share among NEVs in several regions [3] - In Brazil, BYD's sales reached a record 10,000 units in September, achieving a 5.6% market share among passenger vehicles despite tariff hikes [13] - Thailand's market share stabilized at 6.3% in Q3 2025, with strong sales from models like Atto 3 and Dolphin [14] - In Australia, BYD's market share reached 6.5%, with the Sea Lion 7 being the second best-selling EV [15] - Market shares in Turkey and Indonesia retreated to 9% and 7% respectively, but local production is expected to start in 2026 [16] Production and Capacity Expansion - BYD has initiated production in Thailand (Q3 2024) and Brazil (Q3 2025), with plans for Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia in 2026, potentially adding 400,000 to 500,000 units of overseas capacity [5] - The company aims to grow its overseas capacity by 50% over the next three years [5] Financial Outlook - Profitability from overseas production is expected to be higher, with unit profits estimated at RMB 14,000-16,000 overseas compared to RMB 4,000-6,000 in China [6] - The stock has seen a 30% decline since its peak in May 2025, attributed to earnings misses and guidance cuts, but inventory digestion is expected to improve soon [7] Competitive Landscape and Risks - Increased competition from peers like Geely and GWM, who are expanding their model offerings and dealership networks [4] - Rising protectionism, particularly in the EU, where regulations may require technology sharing or joint ventures with local firms [4] - Tariffs on BEV/PHEV in Brazil are set to increase to 35% by July 2026, although local production may mitigate this impact [4] Investment Recommendation - The stock is rated as Overweight with a price target of HK$130.00, indicating a 20% upside from the current price of HK$108.60 [9] Additional Insights - BYD's overseas sales are crucial for its growth as domestic momentum stalls, highlighting the importance of international markets for future revenue [1] - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the NEV market outside China and the US, with expectations that it will account for more than one in eight NEVs sold in these regions by 2026 [12]