台积电-人工智能需求推动强劲增长与乐观预期；评级 “观望”

TSMC Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - Company: TSMC (2330.TW) - Industry: Semiconductors - Market Cap: NT$38,503,011 million - Current Stock Price: NT$1,485.00 - Price Target: Revised from NT$1,588.00 to NT$1,688.00 [1][5][49] Key Financial Performance - 3Q25 Preliminary EPS: NT$17.44, exceeding estimates of NT$16.30 [9][12] - 3Q25 Gross Margin: 59.5%, above estimates of 58.4% [9][12] - 4Q25 Guidance: Revenue expected to decline by 1% Q/Q, with gross margin guidance of 59%-61% [10][15] - 2025 Revenue Growth: Expected to be close to mid-30% Y/Y in USD, revised from original guidance of around 30% Y/Y [7][11] - 2025 Capex Guidance: Narrowed to US$40-42 billion from US$38-42 billion [7] AI Demand Insights - AI Demand: Stronger than previously anticipated, with a projected 5-year CAGR of mid-40% or higher [7][23] - AI Revenue Contribution: Expected to significantly impact TSMC's growth, with potential upside from the Chinese market [7][23] - Wafer Price Increase: Anticipated 3%-5% increase in wafer prices in 2026 due to node migration and value reflections [7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Moore's Law: Management believes the focus is shifting towards system performance rather than just chip scaling, indicating a new era of energy efficiency and system performance improvement [13] - Foundry Competition: TSMC maintains a strong partnership with Intel, which remains a significant customer [13] - Broader Semiconductor Cycle: No signs of pre-build inventory; demand has become seasonal again [13] Future Outlook - 2025 Revenue Estimates: Expected to grow 34% Y/Y in USD terms, with gross margins projected at 59-60% [11][39] - 2026 and 2027 Revenue Growth: Anticipated growth of 25-30% due to strong AI demand [11] - Investment Drivers: Continued strong profitability and revenue growth expected, with TSMC positioned as a top pick in the semiconductor industry [45] Risks and Considerations - Potential Risks: Inventory corrections, weakening demand for leading-edge technologies, and rising costs of overseas fabs [54] - Upside Potential: Increased bargaining power and long-term margin expansion due to sustainable AI semiconductor demand [46] Conclusion - TSMC's strong financial performance, driven by robust AI demand and strategic market positioning, supports a positive outlook for the company. The revised price target reflects confidence in continued growth and profitability in the semiconductor sector.