港交所-9 月交易量数据更新；买入

Summary of Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK) Research Call Company Overview - Company: Hong Kong Exchanges (HKEX) - Ticker: 0388.HK - Market Capitalization: HK$538.1 billion / $69.2 billion Key Financial Updates - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates: - Revised for FY2025E: +0.8% - Revised for FY2026E: -0.5% - Revised for FY2027E: +0.1% - FY2028E EPS introduced at HK$15.4 [1][2][3] - Revenue Projections: - FY2025E: HK$27,732.1 million - FY2026E: HK$28,891.9 million - FY2027E: HK$30,861.9 million [3] - Price Target: - 12-month target price remains at HK$544, implying a 40X P/E for FY2026E [1][2][3] Investment Thesis - Rating: Buy - Upside Potential: 28.2% from current price of HK$424.40 [3] Risks Identified - Increased competition from onshore capital markets [2] - Lower trading velocity in the cash market [2] - Fee pressure due to reduced fees onshore in China [2] - Sustained deflationary environment in China [2] Financial Ratios - P/E Ratios: - FY2025E: 25.4 - FY2026E: 32.5 - FY2027E: 31.3 - FY2028E: 29.3 [3] - Return on Equity (ROE): - FY2025E: 24.8% - FY2026E: 29.7% - FY2027E: 29.2% - FY2028E: 26.5% [3] - Dividend Per Share (DPS): - FY2025E: HK$11.69 - FY2026E: HK$12.19 - FY2027E: HK$13.02 [3] Additional Insights - The investment thesis remains unchanged despite minor adjustments in EPS estimates [1] - The methodology for the price target is based on a 3-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM) [2] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions in China, which could impact HKEX's performance [2] Conclusion - HKEX is positioned for growth with a solid investment rating and a clear target price, but investors should remain cautious of the identified risks that could affect future performance [1][2][3]