煤价急涨下，板块怎么看？

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The coal industry is currently experiencing a significant price increase, particularly in domestic thermal coal prices, which are still facing a price inversion in regions like Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Ordos, where the tax-inclusive price exceeds port prices. However, imported coal maintains a price advantage due to rising shipping costs [1][3]. Key Points Coal Price Dynamics - Recent increases in coal prices have been noted, with port coal prices rising over 30 yuan, reaching approximately 745 yuan per ton, while pit prices in Shaanxi have increased by nearly 5% to around 600 yuan [3][10]. - The average tax-inclusive prices are approximately 780 yuan in Shaanxi, 805 yuan in Shanxi, and 820 yuan in Ordos, indicating a continued price inversion compared to port prices [3]. Import Coal Market - The import coal market in 2025 is characterized by a significant reduction in long-term contracts, with most imports being spot purchases, leading to greater flexibility in import volumes. However, the overall import volume has decreased by nearly 100 million tons year-on-year, totaling about 460 million tons for the first nine months [4][5]. Inventory Levels - Coal inventories at northern ports have significantly decreased, dropping by about 15%, returning to levels comparable to 2023 and 2024. Coastal power plant inventories have also declined, indicating increased demand for replenishment, contributing to the recent price increases [6]. Coking Coal Market - Domestic coking coal prices have risen alongside thermal coal prices, with Shanxi's main coking coal reaching 1,690-1,700 yuan, marking a near-high for the year. Despite some minor declines in Australian and Mongolian coking coal prices, domestic supply disruptions, particularly in Shanxi, are supporting coking coal prices [7]. Stock Performance and Future Outlook - The coal sector has seen a broad increase in stock prices, with elastic varieties and coking coal stocks rising significantly, reflecting a resonance between fundamentals and market sentiment. The demand from power plants has exceeded expectations, and the market is seeking defensive positions amid uncertainties in the U.S. [8][9]. Quarterly Performance Expectations - Despite the rise in coal prices, the overall performance of thermal coal companies in Q3 is expected to show limited improvement, with average selling prices only increasing by about 10 yuan. Major companies like Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal are expected to perform steadily, while local companies may face performance discrepancies [2][13]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on stable companies such as Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal in the short term. After the negative impacts of Q3 reports are fully reflected, it may be prudent to consider increasing positions in more elastic stocks like Yanzhou Coal, Jinko, and Shanxi Coking Coal to capitalize on potential price increases in Q4 [14]. Additional Insights - The upcoming fourth quarter is typically a peak season for coal demand, with expectations of a supply-demand gap due to stringent safety checks and environmental regulations impacting supply. This could lead to further price increases, potentially exceeding 800 yuan per ton [11][12].