9月进出口表现出十足韧性——中国9月进出口数据点评

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of China's import and export data for September 2025, highlighting the resilience of the trade despite ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Export and Import Growth: In September 2025, China's exports and imports grew by 8.3% and 7.4% year-on-year, respectively, exceeding market expectations [1][2][4]. - Impact of U.S. Trade Relations: Exports to the U.S. fell by 27%, while imports from the U.S. decreased by 16.1%, indicating a significant impact from ongoing trade disputes [1][2][4]. - Shift in Trade Partners: The share of exports to the U.S. dropped from nearly 20% before the trade war to about 10% in September 2025, with ASEAN, Africa, Latin America, Russia, India, and Brazil filling the gap [1][2][3]. - Product Structure Changes: The export structure has improved, with machinery and high-tech products growing at 12.6% and 11.5%, respectively. Vehicles, aircraft, and transportation equipment saw a robust growth of 22.6%, becoming a key source of export resilience [1][2][3][4]. - Import Dynamics: Imports from developed regions like the EU, Japan, and South Korea increased, while imports from the U.S. fell to below 5% of total imports. The share of imports from Latin America, Russia, ASEAN, Brazil, and Africa has risen [1][6][7]. Additional Important Insights - Countermeasures Against U.S. Tariffs: China has adopted reciprocal measures in response to U.S. tariffs, maintaining strong trade resilience despite the tensions. High-tech and high-value-added products are crucial for supporting exports [2][4][9]. - Economic Trends Reflected in Trade Data: The strong performance in September indicates a long-term competitive advantage for China, particularly in vehicle-related products, which now account for nearly 10% of total exports. The rapid growth of precious metals imports is linked to recent market trends and potential infrastructure demands [9][10]. - Diverse Product Performance: The data shows a varied performance across different product categories, with machinery and electronic equipment leading exports at 35.3%, followed by mineral products at 25.7%. Precious metals and related products have also seen significant growth [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the resilience of China's trade amidst external pressures and the evolving dynamics of its import and export structures.