周周芝道：如何定价新一轮中美博弈？

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the China-U.S. trade relations and its impact on the global capital markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. Global Capital Market Volatility: The global capital markets are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. government shutdown, Japan's fiscal and monetary policies, and political instability in Europe. The core logic is that overseas fiscal policies are difficult to tighten, making risk premiums a significant factor in capital market pricing [1][2][6]. 2. China-U.S. Trade Dynamics: The China-U.S. trade conflict is a crucial variable in capital market pricing. The U.S. stock market is affected by Trump's stance and bank credit conditions, while the A-share market is influenced by the intensifying trade conflict. The upcoming APEC summit is a focal point for market attention [1][3][7]. 3. Domestic Economic Data in China: There have been no significant changes in China's domestic economic fundamentals. Inflation is stabilizing, and financial and export data remain steady. The changes in the capital market are more influenced by external events rather than domestic fundamentals [1][4][5]. 4. Recent Events Impacting Overseas Markets: Recent events such as the U.S. government shutdown and Japan's proposed fiscal policies have led to increased volatility in overseas markets. These events have catalyzed a reevaluation of instability expectations, with the core logic being that overseas fiscal policies are difficult to tighten [2][6]. 5. Stages of China-U.S. Trade Conflict: The trade conflict has gone through three stages: a severe phase from February to May, a period of easing from May to September, and a fluctuating phase since October. The APEC summit is expected to yield some interim results, indicating a potential improvement in China-U.S. relations [1][7][11]. 6. Future of China-U.S. Relations: The trade conflict is expected to intensify in 2025, with marginal improvements anticipated in 2026, influenced by the U.S. domestic political cycle. The midterm election year will likely shift U.S. focus towards domestic economic policies, reducing emphasis on geopolitical and tariff issues [1][9][10]. 7. China's Strengthened Position: China's manufacturing sector has gained significant leverage, allowing it to adopt a more confrontational stance in trade negotiations. This includes retaliatory measures such as increased fees for U.S. ships entering Chinese ports, enhancing China's negotiation position [1][12]. 8. Impact of Technology and Security Competition: The competition in technology and security between China and the U.S. has increased market volatility, particularly in October. While this competition may cause short-term disruptions, it is not expected to have a significant long-term impact on China's economy [1][13]. 9. Outlook for Bond Market: The bond market in the fourth quarter presents trading opportunities, but there is limited room for interest rate declines. The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations in 2025, with potential risks of sustained interest rate increases in the second half of 2026 [1][14]. 10. Pre-Summit Dynamics: In the lead-up to the summit, intense negotiations are typical as both sides test boundaries and increase their bargaining positions. This does not indicate a deterioration in long-term relations but rather prepares for potential agreements [1][15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes that the current phase of the China-U.S. trade conflict is a natural evolution rather than a regression in relations, highlighting the strategic nature of the ongoing negotiations [1][11].