Summary of J.P. Morgan's Cloud Capex Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Cloud Capital Expenditures (Capex) outlook for the datacenter sector, particularly among the Top 4 U.S. Cloud Service Providers (CSPs), which include Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [1][3][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Capex Growth for 2025: - Datacenter capex growth is now projected to be nearly +60% year-over-year (y/y) in 2025, up from a previous forecast of +40% [1][3][8]. - This growth translates to an increase of over $100 billion in 2025, marking the largest annual increase to date, surpassing the previous record set in 2024 [1][3][8]. 2. Capex Growth for 2026: - For 2026, growth expectations have been revised to +30% y/y, representing an increase of more than $80 billion [1][3][8]. 3. Investment Drivers: - The surge in capex is primarily driven by investments in AI and related infrastructure, with robust double-digit growth across all U.S. hyperscalers [1][3][8]. - Additionally, investments from Tier 2 CSPs and neoclouds are expected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a rise to nearly $80 billion in 2026, up from less than $60 billion in 2025 [1][3][8]. 4. Equipment Categories: - While high-cost servers with advanced XPUs will dominate the expansion, there is also a notable increase in spending on networking equipment such as datacenter switches, optical transceivers, and DCI solutions [1][3][8]. 5. Company Coverage: - J.P. Morgan remains optimistic about companies that support AI infrastructure demands, particularly in networking. Companies highlighted include Arista (ANET), Celestica (CLS), Ciena (CIEN), Coherent (COHR), Lumentum (LITE), and Fabrinet (FN), all rated as Overweight (OW) [1][3][8]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the datacenter capex from a sample of public Tier 2 U.S. CSPs and emerging neoclouds is expected to grow over +100% y/y in 2025, surpassing the average spend from the Top 4 CSPs prior to 2023 [4][34]. - The anticipated growth for Tier 2 and neoclouds in 2026 is projected at +35% y/y, again outpacing the Top 4 CSPs [4][34]. - The report emphasizes that the sample excludes many private companies, which are also expected to show robust spending intentions for 2025 and beyond [4][34]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan report on the cloud capex outlook, highlighting significant growth trends and investment opportunities within the datacenter sector.
硬件与网络：云资本支出展望-2025 年增长率上调至近 + 60%；2026 年增长预期目前为 + 30%-Hardware & Networking_ Cloud Capex Outlook_ Growth Raised to Almost +60% in ‘25; ‘26 Growth Expectations Now Tracking to +30%