铜市场概览：尽管供应中断，全球库存仍激增，但随着供需缺口市场形成，价格仍获支撑-Copper Dashboard_ Global inventories surge despite supply disruptions, but prices remain supported as a deficit market takes hold

Summary of J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard Industry Overview - The report focuses on the copper industry, highlighting global production, inventory levels, and price dynamics. Key Points 1. Global Copper Production Growth: - Global copper production grew by 5% year-to-date through July 2025, but recent supply disruptions are expected to decelerate this growth. Notable disruptions include Kamoa-Kakula in May, Grasberg in September, and a downgrade from Teck in October [1][2][6]. 2. Inventory Trends: - Despite significant mine disruptions, global copper inventories have increased to approximately 700,000 tonnes from below 500,000 tonnes in June, marking the highest levels in the last five years. A deficit is forecasted for Q4 2025, suggesting a potential reversal in inventory trends [1][2][6]. 3. Price Dynamics: - LME copper prices have risen by 23% this year, reaching $4.84/lb, significantly outperforming aluminum, which increased by 10%. The market is currently in slight backwardation, but tight supply-demand dynamics are expected to support prices [1][2][6]. 4. Future Price Projections: - J.P. Morgan's Global Commodities Team anticipates average copper prices of $12,000/tonne ($5.44/lb) in Q1 2026 and around $11,240/tonne ($5.10/lb) for 2026, driven by major supply disruptions, particularly at Grasberg [2][6]. 5. Refined Copper Deficit: - A significant refined copper deficit is projected, with a shortfall of 160,000 tonnes in Q4 2025 and approximately 300,000 tonnes for 2026, despite a slowdown in Chinese demand and a forecasted global refined production growth of 2.2% [2][6]. 6. Supply Risks: - Ongoing supply risks at key mines such as Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, and Quebrada Blanca have led to a downward revision of 430,000 tonnes in 2026 mine supply estimates. Additionally, scrap supply growth is expected to slow due to policy changes in China [2][6]. 7. Equity Preferences: - In terms of equities, J.P. Morgan continues to favor Capstone Copper (CSC) in Australia and Antofagasta in EMEA, while also being overweight on Freeport and First Quantum in North America [1][6]. Additional Insights - Market Sentiment: High-frequency data shows mixed signals; treatment charges (TC/RCs) show no signs of recovery, while LME net speculative positioning is trending higher, indicating increased market interest [1][2][6]. - Copper vs. Other Commodities: Copper has shown a strong performance compared to other commodities, with significant year-to-date movements [1][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the copper industry.