中国材料行业：2025 年实地需求监测-铝库存与消费情况-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #149 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (Week of 9th to 15th Oct 2025) Industry Overview - Industry: Aluminum - Focus: Tracking and analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, particularly in aluminum production, inventory, and consumption [1] Key Points Production Data - Total Aluminum Production: 853kt, unchanged week-over-week (WoW), +3% year-over-year (YoY), and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Aluminum Billet Production: 361kt, +1% WoW, +7% YoY, and +7% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Year-to-Date (YTD) Production: - Total aluminum production: 35.4 million tonnes (mnt), +2.9% YoY - Aluminum billet production: 14.4 mnt, +5.9% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - Total Aluminum Inventory: 976kt as of 16th Oct, -3% WoW, +1% YoY, and +6% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - Social Inventory: 776kt, -2% WoW, -1% YoY, +4% YoY on the lunar calendar - Producers' Inventory: 200kt, -10% WoW, +10% YoY, +12% YoY on the lunar calendar - Aluminum Ingot Inventory: 684kt, -3% WoW, -1% YoY, +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - Aluminum Billet Inventory: 292kt, -3% WoW, +8% YoY, +14% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] Apparent Consumption - Overall Aluminum Apparent Consumption: 917kt, +22% WoW, +6% YoY, +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [4] - Aluminum Ingot Consumption: 923kt, +10% WoW, +3% YoY, +3% YoY on the lunar calendar - Aluminum Billet Consumption: 355kt, +30% WoW, +15% YoY, +7% YoY on the lunar calendar - YTD Apparent Consumption: - Overall: 36.3 mnt, +4.1% YoY - Ingot: +3.5% YoY - Billet: +7.7% YoY [4] Takeaways - The aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is deemed more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand due to its inclusion of various inventory types [5] - Total aluminum inventory decreased WoW, indicating a tighter supply compared to the same period in 2021, but higher than 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [5] - Apparent consumption levels increased WoW and are higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The current sector pecking order in terms of demand recovery is copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel > lithium > thermal coal [1]