大摩：美国股票 - 贸易紧张局势还是消退紧张局势？

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market and the implications of U.S.-China trade relations on various sectors, particularly focusing on healthcare, finance, and industrial sectors. Core Points and Arguments - Market Reaction to APEC Meeting: The market reacted unexpectedly due to unmet expectations from the APEC meeting regarding U.S.-China trade relations, leading to increased volatility [1][3] - Confidence in Bull Market: There is maintained confidence in the current bull market, expected to last until 2026, driven by cost structure compression, backlog demand enhancing pricing power, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - Potential Risks from Tariffs: If the U.S. imposes an additional 100% tariff on China and it persists, along with China's rare earth controls, it could pose significant risks to U.S. manufacturing and technology supply chains, potentially negating recovery expectations [1][5] - Balanced Sector Allocation: A balanced sector allocation is recommended, favoring defensive large-cap healthcare due to improved earnings expectations, low market cap weight, attractive valuations, and strong biotech performance in a rate-cutting cycle [1][6] - Positive Outlook for Financial and Industrial Sectors: The financial sector is expected to benefit from regulatory easing, mergers, and capital market activities, while the industrial sector is supported by re-industrialization initiatives and automation [1][6] - Key Focus for Q3 Earnings Season: Attention will be on consumer responses to tariffs (price pass-through or margin compression), shifts in consumer behavior from services to goods, and the performance of large tech companies and AI applications [1][7] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - High Valuation Levels: Current valuation levels are high, but strong earnings growth is expected to drive valuation multiples higher. Compared to 1999-2000, large-cap stocks now have higher free cash flow yields and better quality, with current valuations approximately 40% discounted when normalized for profit expectations [2][8]