中国政策：宏观宽松，改革存不确定性-China policy_ macro easing, uncertain reforms

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy and its macroeconomic policies, particularly in light of the ongoing US-China trade conflict and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for 2026-2030. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Trade Conflict Resurgence: The US has threatened to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese exports starting November 1, which could raise the average effective tariff on China to over 140%, resembling a virtual trade embargo [2][3] 2. Growth Prospects: China's growth is slowing, with 1H growth supported by export demand and fiscal easing, but real growth is faltering as exports slow and fiscal support diminishes, putting the 5% growth target at risk [3][4] 3. Policy Response: The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will discuss the 15th FYP at its fourth Plenum, with a focus on stabilizing growth through a new 500 billion yuan policy bank program aimed at infrastructure and emerging industries [4][9] 4. Focus on High-Tech Industries: The 15th FYP is expected to emphasize modernization, innovation, and indigenization of high-end technology, particularly in response to Western restrictions on technology transfers [5][24] 5. Consumption Support: While boosting consumption is a key policy goal, actual measures have been modest, with fiscal support for consumption estimated at only 0.4% of GDP [26][27] 6. Social Safety Nets: Strengthening social safety nets is crucial for reducing precautionary savings, but reforms are complicated by local government fiscal pressures and the fragmented pension system [33][36] 7. Service Sector Growth: The low consumption in China is attributed to underdeveloped service consumption. Policies should prioritize expanding service consumption to create jobs and support household income [37][38] 8. Anti-Involution Policies: There is an expectation that anti-involution policies will not be explicitly included in the 15th FYP, with a focus instead on building a unified national market [39][40] 9. Housing Market: The housing market is undergoing a transition, with a focus on stabilizing home prices and expanding rental housing, but comprehensive stabilization strategies are unlikely to be included in the 15th FYP [42][43] 10. Environmental Goals: China aims to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% from peak levels by 2035, which will likely be reflected in the 15th FYP's environmental policies [44] Other Important but Overlooked Content - Fiscal Resources: Near-term growth pressures are rising, with only 2.1 trillion yuan of government bond quota left for 4Q, compared to 2.8 trillion yuan on average in the first three quarters [8] - Monetary Easing: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may bring forward monetary easing measures, including a potential rate cut and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut [16][17] - Upcoming Events: Key events to watch include the 3Q GDP report on October 20, the 4th Plenum from October 20-23, and the Supreme Court hearing on IEEPA tariffs on November 5 [45][46] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy and its policies.