2025 年第四季度金属季报：镀金时代-Metals Quarterly Q4 2025 The gilded age_ The gilded age

Summary of Metals Quarterly Q4 2025 Equities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the metals industry, highlighting various macroeconomic and commodity-specific factors impacting metal markets, including tariffs, geopolitical tensions, supply chain alterations, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][13][14]. Key Points Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for metals has remained resilient, driven by front-loading shipments to the US and increasing demand from sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and AI data centers [2][14]. - However, uncertainties persist due to expected slowdowns in global trade, domestic consumption weaknesses, and policy changes affecting EV sales [2][14]. Price Trends - Major commodity prices, except coal, have increased year-to-date (y-t-d), with precious metals prices rising over 50% y-t-d [3][29]. - Specific price forecasts for various metals include: - Copper: Expected to rise from USD 4.15/lb in 2024 to USD 4.50/lb in 2025, reflecting a 6% increase [3]. - Cobalt: Anticipated to increase significantly due to supply disruptions, with prices forecasted to rise from USD 11.90/lb in 2024 to USD 14.60/lb in 2025 [3]. - Gold: Forecasted to reach USD 3,355/oz in 2025, a 4% increase from previous estimates [3]. Supply Issues - Supply disruptions have been a significant factor in driving prices higher for many metals, particularly copper and cobalt, due to accidents and export bans [4][28]. - The Grasberg mine accident is expected to result in a production loss of approximately 220,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026 [28]. Preferred Metals - Analysts have identified platinum, copper, and rhodium as preferred metals due to their favorable supply-demand dynamics, while nickel has been downgraded to least preferred due to a lack of catalysts [5][11][30]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors continue to influence metal prices, particularly gold, which is being supported by elevated trade risks [4][11]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" campaign in China aims to address over-competition and outdated capacity, which may have long-term implications for metal supply and demand [25][26]. Future Outlook - The outlook for metals remains clouded, with expectations of continued volatility in prices due to various factors, including potential tariff increases and changes in global trade dynamics [17][18]. - The transition to renewable energy and increased EV penetration are expected to be key demand drivers for certain metals, despite challenges in traditional sectors [22][23]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of being selective in commodity investments, as not all commodities will perform similarly in the coming years [32][33]. - Analysts expect a structural deficit in the copper market by 2027-2028, driven by supply issues and increased demand from the EV sector [74][75]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts from the Metals Quarterly Q4 2025 report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the metals industry.