全球基础材料：铁矿石图表集 - 2025 年 9 月-Global Basic Materials_ Iron Ore Chartbook – September 2025

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Global Basic Materials, specifically focusing on Iron Ore and Steel production - Date: October 14, 2025 Iron Ore Market Insights - Benchmark Price: The benchmark iron ore price increased by 2.9% year-over-year (Y/Y) and 2.7% month-over-month (M/M) to $109.2 per ton as of October 13, 2025 [1] - Iron Ore Premium: The 1% iron ore premium rose to $1.80 per ton, reflecting a 2.9% increase Y/Y and M/M [1] - Price Differentials: The 65% Fe price traded at a premium of 12.5% compared to the 62% Fe benchmark, while the 58% Fe price was at a discount of 10.8% [1] Steel Production Data - Global Steel Production: Total global steel production was 145.3 million tons (Mt) in August, remaining flat Y/Y but down 2.7% M/M [2] - Chinese Steel Output: China's steel output decreased by 0.7% Y/Y and 2.9% M/M to 77.4 Mt, accounting for 53% of global production [2] - EU and Other Regions: Steel production in the European Union fell by 2.8% Y/Y to 8.8 Mt, while South Korea's output was down 6.1% Y/Y to 5.2 Mt, and Japan's production decreased by 3.4% Y/Y to 6.6 Mt [2] Inventory and Consumption Trends - Iron Ore Inventories: China's iron ore port inventories increased by 1.2% M/M but decreased by 7.2% Y/Y to 140 Mt, representing 39 days of consumption, which is 5 days above the historical average [3] - Steel Mills' Inventories: As of October 8, 2025, Chinese steel mills held 12.2 Kt of domestic ore (flat M/M) and 208 Kt of imported ore (up 2.4% M/M and 7.3% Y/Y), representing 21 days of consumption, which is 4 days below the historical average [3] Production and Utilization Rates - Chinese Iron Ore Output: Iron ore output from a sample of 186 Chinese miners decreased by 2.2% M/M and 1.2% Y/Y to 468 Kt per day, with a utilization rate of 59.9%, below the historical average of 62.8% [4] - Freight Costs: Freight costs from Brazil to China were $25.1 per ton, above the 2024 average of $24.8 per ton, while Australia to China freight costs were $11.5 per ton, also above the 2024 average of $10.0 per ton [4] Brazilian Iron Ore Exports - Export Volume: Brazilian iron ore exports totaled 36.5 Mt in September, down 1.0% Y/Y and 9.2% M/M [5] - Weekly Shipments: Weekly iron ore shipments from Brazil in September ranged between 4.1 Mt and 8.6 Mt, compared to the 2025 weekly average of 7.8 Mt [5] Market Outlook - Global Supply-Demand Balance: The global crude steel production is projected to reach 1,914 Mt in 2024, with a slight increase to 1,935 Mt in 2025 [38] - China's Import Requirements: China's iron ore import requirements are expected to be 1,216 Mt in 2024, slightly decreasing to 1,175 Mt in 2025 [38] Additional Insights - Freight Rate Trends: The freight rate differential between Brazil-China and Australia-China has been noted, with Brazil's rates being significantly higher [56][57] - Long-term Importer: China is expected to remain a long-term importer of iron ore, with domestic production not meeting the growing demand [39] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the iron ore and steel industries.