ASML-人工智能扩张下股价迈向 1000 欧元之路，买入评级

ASML Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Company: ASML - Industry: Semiconductors - Market Cap: €349 billion / US$406 billion - Current Price: €875.60 (as of October 15, 2025) - 12-Month Rating: Buy - 12-Month Price Target: €1,000 (increased from €940) Key Points and Arguments 1. Revenue Growth Projections - ASML expects 2026 revenues to not fall below 2025 levels, driven by stronger EUV performance in advanced logic and DRAM [2] - Forecast for 2026E revenue from tools sales to TSMC is a mid-single-digit YoY growth, with Memory-end use projected to increase by 25% YoY [2] - Overall revenue growth forecast has been increased to +7% YoY from +3% [2] 2. China Market Dynamics - Anticipated decline in China revenues by 19% YoY in 2026, reflecting normalization after elevated lithography spending [3] - DUV non-China revenue is expected to grow by 18% YoY, while total DUV revenue is estimated to decline by 5% YoY [3] - China WFE is projected to grow by 5% YoY in 2026, supported by deposition and etch equipment [3] 3. High NA Technology - High NA orders are crucial for ASML's growth thesis, with increasing lithography intensity expected in advanced logic and memory [4] - Tool availability is currently around 50%, indicating maturity, with further news expected in the next 12 months [4] 4. Valuation Metrics - ASML is currently trading at a P/E of 26x for 2027, compared to a historical average of 29x, with a projected EPS CAGR of 16% from 2025 to 2030 [1] - Price target raised to €1,000 based on DCF analysis, with a WACC of 9% and growth rate of 3% [5][20] 5. Financial Highlights - Revenue Forecasts: - 2025E: €32.7 billion - 2026E: €35.1 billion - 2027E: €38.6 billion [6] - Net Earnings: - 2025E: €9.57 billion - 2026E: €10.66 billion - 2027E: €12.26 billion [6] - EPS (Diluted): - 2025E: €24.61 - 2026E: €27.86 - 2027E: €32.71 [8] 6. Changes in Forecasts - EPS for FY25 decreased by 1%, while increased by 6-10% for 2026 and 2027 [18] - Adjustments in product and service sales forecasts reflect a more optimistic outlook for the semiconductor market [19] 7. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - ASML maintains a strong position in the semiconductor equipment market, with significant contributions from major clients like TSMC and Samsung [4][17] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from advancements in EUV technology and increasing demand for high-performance chips driven by AI [1][4] Additional Important Insights - The transition to 1c nm technology is expected to enhance lithography intensity, positively impacting ASML's growth trajectory [2] - The company is focusing on capacity expansion in memory, which is anticipated to support revenue growth in the coming years [2] - The overall semiconductor industry is experiencing shifts, with ASML positioned to capitalize on these changes through its advanced technology offerings [1][4] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the ASML conference call, highlighting the company's growth prospects, market dynamics, and financial performance.