中国：9 月财政收支均有改善-China_ Fiscal revenue and expenditure both improved in September

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the fiscal performance of China, particularly in September, highlighting improvements in both fiscal revenue and expenditure compared to previous months. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Growth: - Fiscal revenue growth increased to 2.6% year-on-year (yoy) in September from 2.0% yoy in August, while fiscal expenditure growth rose to 3.1% yoy from 0.8% yoy [1][2][6] - The growth in tax revenue was a significant contributor, offsetting a deeper contraction in non-tax revenue [3][6] 2. Property-Related Revenue: - Property-related government revenue showed some improvement, with land sales revenue contracting by 0.9% yoy in September compared to -5.4% yoy in August, and property-related tax revenue contracting by 3.4% yoy from -11.6% yoy [2][7] - Overall, government revenue from the property sector declined by 1.6% yoy in September, an improvement from -7.0% yoy in August [7] 3. Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD): - The AFD ratio was reported at -12.6% of GDP on a 3-month moving average basis, slightly widening from -12.4% in August [3][8] - The fiscal "spend-through" ratio increased to 98.8% in September from 97.3% in August, indicating an acceleration in fund deployment by the government [8][9] 4. Future Expectations: - Despite improvements, structural challenges remain, including a soft labor market and a prolonged property downturn, necessitating targeted easing measures [9] - The majority of growth impulses from recent easing measures are expected to materialize in late 2025 or early 2026 [9] Additional Important Information - The report indicates that the year-to-date government revenue from land sales has fallen by 4.2% yoy, with a forecast for a 5-10% contraction for the year due to less favorable base effects in Q4 [7] - The report also notes a significant increase in stamp tax revenue from stock trading, which surged to 342% yoy in September from 226% yoy in August, although it only accounted for less than 1% of total fiscal revenue [6] This summary encapsulates the key points regarding China's fiscal performance and the implications for future economic conditions, highlighting both improvements and ongoing challenges in the fiscal landscape.