2025-10-20 01:19Summary of China Logistics Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China logistics industry, particularly the express delivery sector, highlighting the performance of key players in September 2025. Key Companies Discussed - YTO Express (600233 CH) - STO Express (002468 CH) - Yunda Holding (002120 CH) - SF Holding (002352 CH) - J&T Express (1519 HK) - JD Logistics (2618 HK) - ZTO Express (Cayman) Core Insights and Arguments - ASP Recovery: In September 2025, the Average Selling Price (ASP) for Tongda players showed recovery, with YTO, STO, and Yunda increasing their ASP by Rmb 6, 6, and 10 cents month-over-month, translating to year-over-year changes of +1.1%, +4.95%, and +0.5% respectively [1][1][1] - Revenue Growth: - YTO achieved a 14.9% year-over-year revenue growth with a 13.6% parcel volume growth. - STO also reported 14.9% year-over-year revenue growth with a 9.5% parcel volume growth. - Yunda underperformed with only 4.1% year-over-year revenue growth and 3.6% parcel volume growth. - SF's parcel volume grew by 31.8% year-over-year, contributing to a 14.2% revenue growth despite a sequential ASP recovery [1][1][1]. - Market Positioning: - YTO and STO are noted for balancing volume and price effectively, while Yunda is expected to continue losing market share. - SF's strong parcel volume growth indicates effective optimization strategies in its economy express segment [1][1][1]. - Investment Recommendations: - The current pecking order for e-commerce express players is: J&T (Buy) > STO (Buy) > ZTO (Buy) > YTO (Neutral) > YUNDA (Sell). - For premium express players, the order is SF (Buy) > JDL (Buy) [1][1][1]. - Future Outlook: - Anticipation of further ASP recovery in the upcoming peak season for e-commerce, which could positively impact ZTO and J&T. - J&T Express is highlighted as a top pick due to its superior parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia and potential ASP recovery in China [1][1][1]. Additional Important Points - Performance Metrics: - Detailed metrics for September 2025 show YTO with 2,627 million parcels (13.6% YoY), STO with 2,187 million parcels (9.5% YoY), Yunda with 2,110 million parcels (3.6% YoY), and SF with 1,504 million parcels (31.8% YoY) [3][3][3]. - ASP Trends: - ASP for YTO was Rmb 2.21, for STO Rmb 2.12, for Yunda Rmb 2.02, and for SF Rmb 13.87, indicating significant differences in pricing strategies among the players [3][3][3]. - Strategic Considerations: - JDL's valuation is considered attractive with limited downside potential, although uncertainties exist regarding JD's strategies for food delivery and overseas expansion [1][1][1]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the performance and strategic positioning of major players in the China logistics industry.