风电和核电增值税优惠调整，弹性测算

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of VAT policy adjustments on the wind power and nuclear power industries, effective from November 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - VAT Policy Changes: - Onshore wind power will lose its VAT exemption and will be subject to a full 13% VAT starting November 2025. Offshore wind power will enjoy a 50% immediate refund from November 2025 until the end of 2027, after which it will also be fully taxed [1][2]. - Profit Impact: - The VAT adjustment is estimated to reduce profit by approximately 0.017 CNY per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for wind power projects. For a 1 GW wind project, this translates to a profit decrease of about 40 million CNY [1][3][4]. - Company-Specific Performance: - Different companies will experience varying impacts: - Longyuan Power: Expected profit decline of 11% - Zhongmin Energy: Expected decline of 5% - Huaneng New Energy: Expected decline of 4% - Jieneng Wind Power: Expected decline of 7% - Three Gorges Energy: Expected decline of 3% [1][6]. - Long-term Investment Outlook: - Despite a slight decrease in overall investment returns (0.5-1 percentage points) and capital returns (1-2 percentage points), onshore wind resources remain attractive with a central return level around 15%, higher than offshore wind (9%) and solar (7.5%) [7][8]. Additional Important Content - Impact on Equipment Manufacturers: - Companies like Goldwind Technology may see a 5-10% impact on overall performance due to the policy changes, but the overall demand for new installations remains strong due to clear planning for renewable energy capacity [3][12]. - Nuclear Power Specifics: - The VAT policy for nuclear power is divided into three categories, with existing operational units maintaining the original policy and new projects post-October 2025 not receiving any VAT refunds. The short-term impact on nuclear profits is expected to be limited [10][11]. - Market Reaction: - The overall sentiment suggests that while there will be some performance impact on the renewable energy sector, it is not expected to lead to significant downturns. The market's overreaction could present investment opportunities [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the VAT policy changes and their implications for the wind and nuclear power industries.