中国经济-2025 年刺激政策落地，第四季度 GDP 或企稳于 4.6 - 4.7% 同比增速-China Economics-2025 Stimulus Completed, Q4 GDP Likely Stabilizing at 4.6-4.7%Y

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Economics - Focus: Economic performance and fiscal stimulus measures in China for Q4 2025 Core Insights and Arguments 1. GDP Growth Stabilization: Q4 GDP is likely stabilizing at 4.6-4.7% year-on-year, supported by fiscal stimulus measures totaling Rmb500 billion announced by the Ministry of Finance [3][6] 2. Industrial Production Surge: A notable increase in industrial production was observed in September, rising by 1.5 percentage points to 6.7% year-on-year, attributed to additional working days and quarter-end adjustments [2][6] 3. Weakening Demand: Despite the industrial production increase, there is a continued slowdown in fixed asset investment and retail sales, indicating persistent demand weakness [2][6] 4. Deflationary Pressures: The GDP deflator remains at -1% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing deflationary conditions in the economy [2][6] 5. Nominal GDP Decline: Nominal GDP has decreased by 20 basis points to 3.7% year-on-year, highlighting the impact of weakening demand [2][6] 6. Fiscal Measures Impact: The recent fiscal measures are expected to boost infrastructure capital expenditure in the coming months, aiding in stabilizing Q4 real GDP growth [3][6] 7. Annual GDP Target: The 5% annual GDP target is now considered largely achievable, reducing the likelihood of further significant stimulus measures for the remainder of the year [3][6] Additional Important Information 1. Investment Trends: Fixed asset investment year-to-date has shown a decline of 0.5%, with manufacturing and property sectors experiencing significant downturns [5][6] 2. Retail Sales Performance: Retail sales growth has slowed, with nominal growth at 3.0% in September, indicating a challenging consumer environment [5][6] 3. Sector Contributions: The primary industry contributed 4.0% to GDP growth, while the secondary and tertiary industries contributed 4.2% and 5.4%, respectively, showcasing varied performance across sectors [5][6] 4. Future Outlook: The economic outlook suggests that while Q4 may stabilize, the underlying issues of demand weakness and deflation remain critical challenges for the Chinese economy [2][6]