镍行业_9 月镍中间品价格全线强劲上涨-Nickel Dashboard_ Strong gains across nickel intermediary prices in Sept

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Nickel - Key Trends: Strong gains in nickel intermediary prices observed in September, with LME nickel averaging USD 15,310/ton (+1% month-over-month) supported by increased nickel sulfate prices and tighter MHP feedstock [1][3] Core Insights - Nickel Prices: Nickel sulfate prices rose approximately 5% due to tighter feedstock and increased demand for precursors, leading to a premium over LME prices of about 2%, the highest since October 2022 [1] - Nickel Pig Iron (NPI): Average price for NPI was USD 11,940/ton, up 4% month-over-month, attributed to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining [1] - Market Dynamics: Anticipation of pre-buying by smelters ahead of the 2026 permit approval cycles and the Philippines' monsoon season could further influence prices [1] - Ore Premiums: High premiums for higher-grade saprolite nickel ore, with prices reaching USD 57-60/ton, compared to a 2Q average of USD 54/ton [1] Company-Specific Insights - Preferred Picks: ANTM is favored despite expected soft 3Q earnings due to gold supply issues, as its nickel business is expected to offset declines in gold performance [1] - Neutral Ratings: INCO and MDKA are rated Neutral; INCO's stock has outperformed the JCI by 14% in September, but future earnings growth is seen as overvalued [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply Constraints: Indonesia's government has suspended 190 mining permits and imposed stricter environmental standards, which may slow refined supply growth to 5.2% year-over-year in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027 [3] - Global Oversupply: The Global Commodities team projects nickel to remain in oversupply by 200-300kt over the next two years due to shifts in battery chemistry and a slowdown in stainless steel demand [3] Financial Metrics - Company Valuations: - ANTM: Market Cap USD 5.0 billion, P/E 10.1x for FY25E, EPS growth 155.5% [4] - INCO: Market Cap USD 2.8 billion, P/E 61.6x for FY25E, EPS growth -23.1% [4] - MDKA: Market Cap USD 3.5 billion, P/E NM for FY25E, EPS growth NM [4] Additional Considerations - Investor Sentiment: Feedback indicates skepticism regarding INCO's future earnings, suggesting that current stock prices may reflect overly optimistic projections [3] - Long-term Outlook: The nickel market is expected to face challenges from evolving battery technologies and fluctuating demand from the stainless steel sector, which could impact pricing and profitability [3] Conclusion - The nickel industry is experiencing price increases driven by supply constraints and demand dynamics, with specific companies like ANTM positioned favorably. However, broader market conditions suggest potential oversupply and challenges ahead, particularly for companies like INCO and MDKA.