中国 A 股策略_自主可控 -资本市场的长期布局方向-China A-share strategy_ Self-reliance - a long-term play for capital markets

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - Industry: A-share market in China - Company: Nomura Orient International Securities Co., Ltd. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Impact of US Tariffs: The US announced a new 100% tariff on imports from China, which has reignited trade tensions. This move is seen as non-constructive by China's Ministry of Commerce [1][2][3] 2. Market Sentiment: A fresh round of tariffs is unsettling market sentiment, particularly affecting the Hong Kong market, which may experience short-term selling pressure. This could spill over to the A-share market, leading to correction risks for dual-listed companies [2][3] 3. Resilience in Certain Sectors: Despite the trade tensions, sectors less exposed to the latest flare-up, such as technology (especially self-reliance and defense) and high-dividend stocks, are expected to show resilience [3][4] 4. Self-Reliance as a Long-Term Strategy: China's self-reliance agenda is anticipated to drive capital formation and policy continuity, suggesting sustained investor interest in sectors like military trade, domestic semiconductor substitution, AI infrastructure, and commercial aerospace [4][5] 5. Risks to the Outlook: Potential risks include a broad market downturn, weaker-than-expected policy support, and global sovereign debt risks [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Market Reaction to Trade Talks: The market has not fully priced in the risks of further escalation in trade tensions, and investors are advised to monitor the upcoming APEC meeting for signs of a truce [3][4] 2. Government Leverage: The self-reliance agenda may lead to a gradual rise in government leverage, which could impact capital markets positively in the medium to long term [4] 3. Investor Recommendations: Investors are encouraged to focus on A-share sectors that align with the self-reliance theme, as these are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support [4]