如何评估风电与核电增值税政策调整的影响？

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of VAT policy adjustments on the wind power and nuclear power industries [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Nuclear Power Impact: - Existing operational nuclear units are unaffected by the VAT policy changes. However, approved but not yet operational units will see a reduction in the VAT refund period from 15 years to 10 years, with a refund rate lowered to 50%. New approved projects will not benefit from any VAT incentives [1][2]. - The financial impact on approved but not operational nuclear units is estimated to be between 350 million to 400 million yuan, primarily affecting years 6 to 15. New approved projects may face around 500 million yuan in financial impact [3]. - Wind Power Impact: - For onshore wind power, profitability per GW is expected to decrease by approximately 0.11 yuan, representing a 6% decline. Offshore wind power will see a more significant reduction, with profitability per GW decreasing by 0.41 yuan. The competitiveness of onshore wind power will drop by 0.3 percentage points, while offshore wind power will decrease by 0.6 percentage points [1][3][4]. - Market Reaction: - The market's response to these policy changes has been relatively stable, with only a few companies significantly affected by the tax refund changes experiencing noticeable declines. Overall, most wind power operators and major nuclear power operators have shown stable performance due to low valuations of green electricity and nuclear power, with limited fundamental impacts [5]. - Long-term Outlook for Nuclear Sector: - The VAT policy changes are not expected to significantly impact the long-term investment value of the nuclear sector. Despite uncertainties from the pressure to decarbonize thermal power and rising coal prices, these factors may limit the decarbonization process of thermal power, which could benefit clean energy sources [6]. Additional Important Insights - Green Energy Trends: - The "Document No. 136" protects the tax rates of older projects. High-energy-consuming industries are mandated to use green energy, with sectors like aluminum required to purchase a certain percentage of green energy starting in 2025. Other industries such as steel, cement, data centers, and polysilicon may also be included in this system in the coming years. Significant subsidy funds released in August and September have alleviated some overdue payment issues, indicating that green energy has left-side investment value [7]. - Investment Potential in Fujian Coastal Operators: - Fujian coastal operators, such as Funiu and Zhongmin, are expected to benefit from two favorable factors: improved performance since the third quarter and the anticipated distribution of projects as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may address valuation issues due to a lack of growth [8].