2025Q4~2026年主流经济体及中国宏观经济前瞻

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Economic Outlook - Global Economic Policies: In 2025, major economies are expected to implement both fiscal and monetary easing policies, albeit at different paces. The lagging effect of tariffs on inflation is not expected to be significant in 2025 but will become more pronounced in 2026, constraining monetary policy while fiscal policy remains loose due to political factors [1][2] - China's Export Growth: Contrary to previous pessimistic views on the impact of US-China trade conflicts, China's export growth in 2025 is projected to exceed expectations, nearing 6%. This growth is anticipated to continue into 2026, driven by high-tech and industrial manufacturing sectors [1][2] - Debt Sustainability Concerns: The rising debt-to-GDP ratios in multiple countries have led to questions about fiscal sustainability, with the yield spread between long-term and short-term government bonds reaching historical highs in the US, Japan, France, and the UK [1][4] Macroeconomic Indicators - US Economic Growth: The US is expected to maintain a real GDP growth rate of around 1.8%, entering a new equilibrium phase driven by AI investments rather than traditional consumer spending [1][8][20] - Japan's Fiscal Policy: Japan is likely to maintain fiscal easing under the new Prime Minister, but monetary easing may be constrained due to inflation pressures. The government may resort to tax cuts or increased subsidies to expand fiscal spending [1][13] - Inflation Trends: Inflation is expected to remain a critical issue, with core PCE in the US projected to rise to between 2.8% and 3.1% due to increased tariffs and consumer burden [1][18] Trade and Investment Dynamics - US Tariff Impact: The actual tariff revenue as a percentage of imported goods is about 11%, with theoretical rates close to 20%. This discrepancy is attributed to the declining share of Chinese imports and exemptions in US tariff agreements. Future increases in actual tariffs are anticipated, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [1][17] - China's Economic Structure: China's economy is undergoing a significant transformation, with a decline in labor-intensive product exports and an increase in the share of machinery and electronics, which now account for 63% of total exports. High-tech product exports are also on the rise [1][22][23] Future Projections - China's GDP Growth: For 2026, China's real GDP growth is projected at approximately 4.65%, with CPI expected to rise above 1% and export growth further increasing to 6.1% [1][21] - Real Estate and Infrastructure Investment: The outlook for China's real estate market remains pessimistic due to high inventory levels, while infrastructure investment growth is expected to stabilize at 4% to 5% [1][22][30] - Global Inflation Resilience: The resilience of global inflation may lead to political unrest and significant economic impacts, with potential for sudden shifts from long-term issues to short-term crises [1][25] Conclusion - The economic landscape for 2025 and 2026 is characterized by a complex interplay of fiscal and monetary policies, trade dynamics, and structural changes in major economies, particularly in the context of US-China relations and global inflation trends. The focus on AI investments in the US and the transformation of China's export profile are key themes to monitor moving forward [1][20][28]