2025-10-22 02:12Summary of Earnings Preview for China Utilities Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Utilities sector, specifically highlighting the Power, Renewables, and Power Grid industries in the Asia Pacific region - The overall industry view is considered Attractive [4][6] Key Insights - 3Q25 Earnings Expectations: - Continued margin recovery is anticipated for wind component and submarine cable players - Polysilicon earnings may see upside risks - Solar module producers are expected to maintain flat or show mild decline in losses quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [1][6] - Coal Prices and Power Tariffs: - A slight weakening in unit profit is expected due to a small rise in coal prices and a persistently soft power tariff [6][8] - Sector Performance: - Wind sector is expected to see a sector-wide gross profit (GP) margin recovery, primarily driven by submarine cables with a favorable product mix in 3Q25 - Wind Turbine Generator (WTG) Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) may experience a more muted recovery [6][8] Company-Specific Highlights - CGN Power Co., Ltd (1816.HK): - On-grid power generation decreased by 3% year-over-year (YoY) in 3Q25 due to longer outage times - Estimated net profit of approximately Rmb2.6 billion, down 6% YoY [8][10] - China Longyuan Power Group (0916.HK): - Forecasted net profit of Rmb937 million in 3Q25, down from Rmb1,542 million in 2Q25 - Net profit for 9M25 expected to be Rmb4.5 billion, down 22% YoY [8][10] - Huaneng Power International Inc. (0902.HK): - Estimated net profit of Rmb4.1 billion, up approximately 38% YoY but down 5% QoQ - Unit fuel cost expected to decline by Rmb0.036/kWh (12% YoY) [8][10] - Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co. Ltd. (600522.SS): - Forecasted net profit of Rmb1.03 billion for 3Q25, up 21.1% YoY and 9.6% QoQ [8][10] - Goldwind (2208.HK): - Expected net profit of Rmb953 million, representing a 135.1% YoY increase [10][10] - Tongwei Co. Ltd. (600438.SS): - Forecasted net loss of Rmb2.2-2.4 billion in 3Q25, with improvements in polysilicon business due to price rebounds [10][10] - LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd. (601012.SS): - Expected loss of Rmb1.0-1.3 billion in 3Q25, with slight declines in wafer and module shipments [10][10] Additional Observations - Polysilicon Players: Potential earnings surprises are anticipated due to increases in shipments and average selling prices (ASP) in 3Q25 [6][8] - Demand Outlook: Weaker demand is expected in 4Q25 compared to 3Q25, particularly for solar products [6][8] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings preview for the China Utilities sector, highlighting both the overall industry outlook and specific company forecasts.