跨商品展望 - 黄金短期暂歇，中期看涨铜、铝，油价处于 2026 年区间中点-Cross-Commodity Outlook-Gold to pause for now, medium term bullish copper, aluminium, oil at midpoint of 2026 range

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report provides an outlook on key commodities including gold, oil, copper, and aluminium, indicating a pause in gold prices while maintaining a bullish medium-term outlook for copper and aluminium, as well as oil prices projected to stabilize around $60 per barrel by 1Q'26 [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Gold Price Forecast: The near-term target for gold is set at $4,000 per ounce, down from a current spot price of $4,250 per ounce. This adjustment is based on expectations of a potential end to the US government shutdown and developments in US-China relations [5][10]. - Oil Market Dynamics: The Brent crude oil price is expected to average around $60 per barrel in early 2026, influenced by factors such as China's stockpiling and OPEC+ revenue needs. A potential end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to a price drop to $50-55 per barrel before OPEC+ intervenes [4][13]. - Copper and Aluminium Outlook: Medium-term bullish forecasts for copper and aluminium suggest prices could reach $12,000 per tonne (approximately 15% upside) and $3,500 per tonne (approximately 25% upside) respectively over the next 6-12 months. This is driven by structural energy transition and AI trends, alongside expectations of a cyclical growth rebound [4][5]. Additional Important Insights - Market Sentiment and Wealth Rebalancing: There is a potential bearish sentiment surrounding gold due to the possibility of wealth shifting out of gold as market fears subside. A small rebalancing of profits from gold stockpiles could significantly impact supply dynamics, potentially doubling gold mine supply [10][11]. - Inflation and Interest Rates: The report notes that a dovish Federal Reserve stance, particularly under new leadership by mid-2026, could support a bull market for copper and aluminium, as lower real interest rates and improved growth expectations are anticipated [4][5]. - Investment Strategy Recommendations: Investors are advised to consider building bullish positions in copper and aluminium to capitalize on expected price increases, while also being cautious of potential shifts in gold demand due to changing market conditions [4][5]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a complex interplay of factors affecting commodity prices, with a cautious yet optimistic outlook for copper and aluminium, a stabilizing oil market, and a nuanced perspective on gold influenced by broader economic conditions and market sentiment [1][4][5].