Waste nections(US:WCN)2025-10-22 13:30Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $2.458 billion, an increase of $120 million or 5.1% year over year, exceeding expectations [15][20] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $830.3 million, up 5.4% year over year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.8%, reflecting a 10 basis point increase year over year [19][20] - Core pricing increased by 6.3% in Q3, leading to an expected full-year core pricing of approximately 6.5% [15][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Roll-off pulls were down 1% year over year, while rates per pull increased by 2% [17] - Landfill tons increased by almost 3%, with municipal solid waste (MSW) tons up 2% and special waste tons up 10% [17] - E&P waste revenues increased by 7% year over year, driven by the production-oriented R360 Canada business [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Volumes were down 2.7%, reflecting a purposeful shedding of low-margin contracts and sluggishness in cyclically exposed activities [15][20] - The southern region continued to experience mid-single-digit declines, while markets like Florida and Texas showed less negative trends compared to previous quarters [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on acquisition activity, with approximately $300 million in annualized revenues either closed or under definitive agreement year to date [10] - An 11.1% increase in the regular quarterly cash dividend was authorized, marking the 15th consecutive annual double-digit increase since 2010 [10] - Long-term investments in technology and infrastructure are being made to enhance productivity and efficiency, with a focus on data analytics and customer experience [14][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering the full-year 2025 outlook, assuming no further headwinds [4][20] - For 2026, the company anticipates mid-single-digit revenue growth driven by price-led organic growth in solid waste, with adjusted EBITDA margin expansion expected [21][22] - The company is optimistic about the benefits of higher employee retention and engagement, which have positively impacted financial results [12][13] Other Important Information - The company has achieved significant progress in sustainability targets, including a 19% reduction in emissions and improved safety metrics [11][12] - The Chiquita Canyon landfill closure is being managed effectively, with ongoing remediation efforts showing positive results [46][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the performance of the E&P business in Q3 and its outlook? - Management noted strong performance in the production-oriented segment, with a sequential increase in the Canadian business due to a remediation job, suggesting a run rate adjustment of $10 million for future projections [27] Question: What is the expected impact of RNG investments on EBITDA? - Management indicated that there would be no material incremental RNG revenue or EBITDA in 2025, with benefits expected to materialize more significantly in 2027 [28] Question: How do you view the pricing strategy for 2026? - The company expects to need less price increase in 2026 compared to 2025, with a target price-cost spread of 150 to 200 basis points [40][42] Question: What are the expectations for free cash flow in 2026? - Management highlighted that the timing of capital expenditures and green CapEx will inform free cash flow expectations, with a potential $50 million benefit from lower green CapEx [43] Question: Can you provide an update on the Chiquita Canyon remediation obligations? - Progress is being made in the remediation efforts, with a reduction in leachate handling and a significant decrease in odor complaints, although outlays are running ahead of expectations [46][48] Question: What is the outlook for volumes heading into next year? - Management indicated that while volumes have been flattish, there are signs of improvement, and the company is not expecting significant contract expirations that would impact volumes negatively [51][76]