2025-10-22 14:56Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese liquor industry, focusing on major brands such as Yanghe, Jinshiyuan, Moutai, Wuliangye, and Gujing. - The overall performance of the liquor market during the Double Festival period shows mixed results, with some brands experiencing declines while others see slight growth. Key Points and Arguments Yanghe's Performance - Yanghe's shipment volume declined by 16.5% during the Double Festival, while Jinshiyuan's increased by 8.9% [1][4]. - The leadership change at Yanghe has led to a focus on promoting mass-market products, such as the new Hai Zhi Lan, and plans to launch products priced below 300 RMB [9]. - Yanghe's market performance is not yet at the bottom, with expectations of further declines over the next two to three years due to unstable channel conditions and difficulties in attracting new distributors [10]. Jinshiyuan's Stability - Jinshiyuan's performance is considered slightly better than its peers, with a terminal transaction price for its four-open product around 420 RMB and the two-open product around 280 to 290 RMB [13]. - Despite thin margins, Jinshiyuan maintains its market share due to fast natural sales and high brand recognition [13]. Gujing's Inventory and Pricing - Gujing has a high inventory level, with a cycle exceeding 120 days. The wholesale price for Gu 16 is approximately 300 RMB, while Gu 20 ranges from 400 to 460 RMB [18][19]. - Gujing's sales volume decreased by 3% during the Double Festival, but overall performance remained stable [21]. Market Dynamics - Moutai's shipment volume remained flat with a slight increase of about 1%, while Wuliangye saw a decline of 1.7%, and Luzhou Laojiao dropped by 13.1% [3][21]. - The online channel's development in the liquor market depends on the manufacturers' efforts, with distributors lacking pricing advantages [25]. Profitability and Pricing Strategies - Yanghe's price decline is attributed to demand issues and customer preferences, with stricter cost controls affecting price stability [7][8]. - Jinshiyuan's V3 series has a profit margin of about 15%, while the four-open series has a gross margin of around 10% [31]. Future Outlook - For Yanghe, the fourth quarter of 2025 does not have repayment requirements, and most distributors expect to complete 75% of their repayment tasks [29]. - Jinshiyuan's distributors will adjust growth targets based on market conditions, with expectations for high growth in the V3 series [29]. Additional Important Insights - The overall liquor market in Jiangsu province is performing relatively well, with Moutai and Jinshiyuan being among the few brands to show growth [22]. - The feedback from the autumn sugar meeting indicates that distributors are primarily concerned about completing their tasks and whether year-end rebates will be honored [23]. - The performance of non-standard products in the liquor market has seen significant price fluctuations, with the need for Moutai's pricing strategy to influence overall market trends [27].