战略金属钨，后续行情如何演绎？

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing significant price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand dynamics and procurement strategies. Concentrated purchasing has led to short-term price declines, while mine production halts and restarts directly affect market supply [1][2][3]. Key Points Price Trends - Tungsten concentrate prices have been rising since 2021 due to supply-demand imbalances, with demand exceeding supply. Notably, prices surged from May to September 2025, driven by concentrated purchasing activities [2][4]. - In the first half of 2025, mine profit margins reached 42.73%, while smelting companies saw profit margins increase to 2.18%. Overall, the price increases have had a minimal impact on profit margins across the industry [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten concentrate is expected to remain tight until 2026, with limited new production capacity and anticipated demand growth. This ongoing supply-demand conflict is likely to drive prices higher [1][5]. - Despite an increase in imports, the growth rate may slow down, and domestic new capacity is lagging, contributing to sustained supply tightness [1][6]. Regulatory Impact - The delay in the issuance of the second batch of tungsten mining quotas has had some impact on the industry, but the overall effect is limited due to China's quota management system, which controls illegal mining and ensures resource utilization [1][7]. Export Restrictions - In 2025, China implemented export restrictions on tungsten products such as APT, tungsten carbide, and tungsten oxide, leading to a significant decrease in export volumes compared to 2024. For instance, APT exports dropped from 489 tons in 2024 to 222 tons in 2025 [10][11]. Challenges in the U.S. Market - The U.S. faces challenges in rebuilding a complete tungsten supply chain, relying heavily on imports for smelting. The country has limited operational mines and smelting facilities, making it difficult to establish a self-sufficient industry [13][22]. Future Projections - By the end of 2027, it is projected that the total new tungsten concentrate supply will increase by at least 40,000 tons, with monthly increments of 1,800 to 2,000 tons. However, several projects face risks of delays [16][17]. Applications and Market Space - Tungsten's applications in nuclear fusion and military sectors are being explored, but the demand in these areas is not expected to lead to significant market growth in the near term. The military's demand for tungsten is relatively small, with some applications potentially being replaced by other metals [18][20][21]. Additional Insights - The historical context of tungsten quotas shows that the Chinese government has adjusted production limits to balance supply and demand, with recent reductions in quotas reflecting the need to manage resources effectively [8][9]. - The U.S. government is exploring the development of tungsten resources in Kazakhstan, with investments aimed at critical mineral projects, although these new mining areas are smaller in scale compared to existing operations [22][23].