大摩闭门会-金融、新能源、航空、汽车行业更新

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - Wind Power and Nuclear Power: The adjustment of value-added tax subsidies for wind power operators is significant, with a profit impact of approximately 10% starting from November 2025. The internal rate of return (IRR) for onshore wind projects is expected to decline by 0.5-0.6 percentage points, while nuclear power projects will see annual profit reductions of 20-50 million yuan per unit starting from 2031 [1][4]. - Inbound Tourism: The inbound tourism market is rapidly growing, projected to account for 18% of national tourism revenue by 2030 and 25% by 2034, driven by business, leisure, and talent immigration. The hotel industry is expected to contribute the most to revenue, with online travel agencies (OTAs) showing significant profit margin advantages [1][5][6]. - Aviation Industry: The aviation sector is benefiting from a shortage of flight capacity, with ticket prices turning positive year-on-year. The delivery of aircraft is slow, and engine maintenance is limiting capacity. Domestic flight schedules are experiencing negative growth, but passenger load factors are increasing [1][7][8]. - Cement Industry: Chinese cement companies are accelerating overseas expansion, targeting Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Africa. The competition is intensifying in Southeast Asia, while Central Asia, particularly Tajikistan, remains profitable due to high demand. The potential for growth in Africa is significant [1][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - Wind Power: The cancellation of the 50% VAT subsidy for onshore wind projects will significantly impact profitability, with major operators like Longyuan and Goldwind facing substantial profit reductions [3][4]. - Inbound Tourism Growth: The growth in inbound tourism is expected to benefit various sectors, particularly hotels and OTAs, with recommendations for stocks like Ctrip and China National Aviation [1][5][6]. - Aviation Sector Outlook: The aviation industry is expected to continue its recovery, with increasing load factors and positive ticket pricing trends. Recommendations include H-shares of China National Aviation and Eastern Airlines [1][7][8]. - Cement Companies' Overseas Strategy: Companies like Huaxin Cement are leading in overseas expansion, with significant profit contributions from international operations. Huaxin is favored due to its strong growth prospects and risk management capabilities [1][9]. Additional Important Information - Banking Sector Opportunities: The banking sector is expected to see opportunities in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, with stable interest margins and signs of income rebound. High-dividend banks like ICBC and CCB are recommended [10][11][13]. - Insurance Industry Performance: The insurance sector has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with significant profit growth for major players like China Life and New China Life. The outlook for the insurance industry remains positive [14][15][16]. - Automotive Industry Restructuring: The automotive sector is undergoing significant restructuring, with mergers like Dongfeng and Changan, and strong sales growth for brands like MG. The outlook for electric vehicles is also positive [17][18][19]. - State-Owned Enterprises: Companies like BAIC are exploring transformation paths amid industry pressures, with potential for upward valuation through reforms [20].