“旧”⻩⾦遭抛售，“新”⻩⾦受追捧

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver, amidst significant market volatility triggered by comments from President Trump. Core Insights and Arguments - Gold Price Movement: Spot gold experienced a 6.3% drop, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, with current support around $4,100 [3][22] - Silver Price Movement: Spot silver saw an 8.7% crash, the biggest drop since 2021, testing down to a $47 handle intraday [4][6] - Gold-to-Silver Ratio: The gold-to-silver ratio at 80:1 provided support for the pair, indicating a strategic timing for silver's underperformance relative to gold [7] - Ownership Transfer: UBS trading desk noted a transfer of ownership, with stronger hands reducing exposure while new entrants, particularly hedge funds and family offices, increased positions using leveraged structures [9][10] - Physical Demand: There was a notable absence of physical demand from India, which is significant given its role as a key buyer in the market [10] - Funding Pressures: Funding pressures in both silver and gold are easing as vaults in Shanghai and New York are emptied to alleviate physical tightness in London [11] - Market Sentiment: The sentiment remains constructive on gold, but the lack of sticky demand makes it vulnerable in the near term [16] - ETF Trading Volume: An unprecedented volume of trading was observed in the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) [20] - Bitcoin vs Gold: The decline in gold prices coincided with a rise in Bitcoin prices, indicating a shift in investor preference [22] - Mining Stocks Impact: The GDX (Gold Miners ETF) had one of its worst days since the Global Financial Crisis, highlighting the negative correlation between gold prices and mining stocks [23] Additional Important Insights - Market Volatility: The market is experiencing a shift back to positive gamma, which may help reduce intraday volatility and improve liquidity [40] - Labor to Purchase Gold: It now takes 116 hours of work in the US to buy one ounce of gold, the highest level in at least 100 years, indicating a significant increase in gold's relative cost [53][57] - Income Growth vs Gold Prices: The ratio of hours worked to purchase gold has doubled in 18 months, suggesting that gold prices have outpaced income growth significantly [57] This summary encapsulates the critical developments in the precious metals market as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the volatility, market dynamics, and broader economic implications.