中国基础材料监测_2025 年 10 月-China Basic Materials Monitor_ October 2025_ The fall in construction

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - October 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Basic Materials industry, particularly construction materials, steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, and lithium sectors. Key Points Construction and Demand Trends - End-user orderbooks showed a month-over-month (MoM) increase as of mid-October, aligning with seasonal trends. However, infrastructure construction is deteriorating faster than anticipated, with weakened project start rates. The impact of central government special funding remains unclear based on feedback from construction dealers and producers of cement and construction steel [1][2][3] - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is reported to be 11-18% lower year-over-year (YoY), while demand for copper and aluminum is 5-6% lower YoY. Flat steel demand has increased by 2% YoY [2][3] Supply Side Dynamics - There have been no significant cuts in steel production, while corrections in excess production and safety inspections in coal continue. Domestic disruptions in copper scrap have deepened [2] - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for coal, cement, aluminum, copper, and lithium, while steel prices have softened [2] Producer Feedback and Order Trends - A proprietary survey indicates that 61% of respondents in downstream sectors and 26% in basic materials reported an MoM increase in orderbooks for October. Conversely, 26% of respondents indicated a lower MoM trend [3] Price and Margin Analysis - Margin improvements have been noted across several materials, including coal, cement, aluminum, copper, and lithium, while steel margins have softened [2] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the basic materials sector reflects a cautious outlook due to the declining trends in construction and infrastructure projects, despite some positive signals in specific sectors like auto/EV and battery production [1][2] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of government funding on infrastructure projects, as its effects are yet to be fully realized [1] - The data suggests a potential shift in investment focus towards sectors showing resilience, such as auto/EV and battery production, while traditional construction materials may face ongoing challenges [1][2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the October 2025 report on the China Basic Materials industry, emphasizing the current demand trends, supply dynamics, and market sentiment.