中国酒店业 - 催化剂前瞻：2025 年四季度展望-China Hotels-Catalyst Previews What's Ahead in 4Q25

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the hotel industry in the Asia Pacific region, specifically Chinese hotel stocks, H World Group Ltd (HTHT) and Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd (ATAT) [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments H World Group Ltd (HTHT) - Inaugural Capital Markets Day: Scheduled for October 30, 2025, expected to provide a detailed growth roadmap aiming to operate 20,000 hotels domestically over the next five years [6] - Brand Positioning: The company plans to discuss existing and new initiatives to capture more market share domestically [6] - International Developments: Recent overseas developments, particularly in Southeast Asia, are anticipated to be highlighted [6] - Financial Projections: Expectations for asset-light business revenue and operating profit projections to be shared [6] - RevPAR Trends: Positive signs of business demand recovery, with expectations for RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) to turn positive year-over-year in 4Q25, aided by an easy comparison base from November 2024 [6] - 3Q25 Results: Anticipated to show a narrower RevPAR decline of -1% compared to -4% in 1H25, with positive guidance for 4Q25 expected [6] Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd (ATAT) - Retail Performance: Reported a 74% year-over-year growth in retail revenue in 1H25, with an 86% increase during the "618" sales promotion [6] - Market Expectations: The market anticipates a 65-70% year-over-year growth in "Double 11" sales promotion; any deviation from this could act as a catalyst for stock movement [6] Valuation Methodology and Risks - HTHT Valuation: Based on discounted cash flow (DCF) with a WACC of 10.5%, medium-term growth of 8% (2028-35e), and a terminal growth rate of 2% [8] - ATAT Valuation: Also based on DCF, with a forecasted 17.5% EBITDA CAGR from 2025-29 and an 8% CAGR thereafter, implying a 17x EV/EBITDA for 2025 [7] Risks Identified - HTHT Risks: - Upside: More hotel openings than expected, lower reinvestment costs, higher industry RevPAR [10] - Downside: Significant slowdown in retail sales growth, industry RevPAR declines over 3% YoY in 2026 [10] - ATAT Risks: - Upside: Stronger-than-expected RevPAR growth, quicker mix upgrade leading to higher blended RevPAR growth [11] - Downside: Industry RevPAR declines deeper than -5% YoY for 2025, rising supply and competition in the low/mid-scale segment [11] Additional Insights - The hotel industry is currently in a low season, but business demand trends in late October and November will be critical for assessing the necessity of business travel [1] - The conference call emphasizes the importance of upcoming events and financial results as potential catalysts for stock performance in the hotel sector [2][5]